All 30 MLB teams are on the schedule this Sunday with six games starting at 4:00 p.m. ET or later. My colleague, Dan Johnson, covered the early games, and I’m ready to step up to the plate and swing for the fences with some home run props from the later matchups. The later wave of games got an extra addition with the Tigers-Red Sox game moving to a later start time, and it will conclude with the Braves-Phillies showdown on Sunday Night Baseball. Let’s take a look at some juicy home run props to target on DraftKings Sportsbook this Sunday.
By their nature, home run props are long shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more unlikely to not homer than go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for later on Sunday: Max Muncy, Jesus Sanchez and Kyle Schwarber.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Max Muncy (ATH) 1+ Home Run (+408)
The Athletics and White Sox are wrapping up their series at Sutter Health Park, where the weather is forecast to be near 75 degrees with the wind blowing out. It’s a matchup of lefties with rookie Noah Schultz taking the mound for Chicago against Jeffrey Springs for the A’s. Schultz made his MLB debut last Tuesday, giving up four runs on three hits and four walks against the Rays. The rookie should be a good matchup for the A’s, and one of the team’s best righty bats is Max Muncy.
The other Max Muncy (from the Dodgers) had two homers earlier this week, but the A’s Muncy has also been hitting the ball well, with a 65.9% hard-hit rate and 15.9% barrel rate in his 20 games this season. He’s hitting .274 with a .353 wOBA and .205 ISO, and he is 6-for-23 (.261) with five extra-base hits against lefties on the year. He tripled on Saturday and had two barrels, and he brings lots of home run upside while he keeps smashing the ball so often.
Jesus Sanchez 1+ Home Run (+499)
Sanchez and the Blue Jays are trying to avoid a sweep by the Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix, and they’ll go against Ryne Nelson on Sunday afternoon. Nelson has a 3.54 ERA and 4.99 FIP in his first four starts this year with a 50.8% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate against him. He has given up four homers, three by left-handed hitters, who have a .419 SLG and .285 wOBA against Nelson.
Sanchez has a pair of homers in his 19 games since joining the Blue Jays this offseason. He is hitting .262 (which would be a new personal best) with a 45.1% hard-hit rate and a .359 xwOBA. Sanchez has plenty of raw power and getting him at 5:1 feels like great value Sunday.
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+335)
Schwarber and the Phillies have dropped four straight, including the first two games of this series against their division rivals. The Phillies have only scored one run in the first two games, but they’ll look to get going as they take on Grant Holmes on Sunday Night Baseball. While the offense has been scuffling overall, Schwarber already has six homers with a 53.8% hard-hit rate and 25.6% barrel rate.
Schwarber has hit all six of his homers this season against righties like Holmes, and five of them at Citizens Bank Park, where he’ll play Sunday night. He hasn’t taken Holmes deep in their past meetings, but he has an impressive .628 wOBA and 301 wRC+ in his small sample size against righties at home this season.
While Schwarber’s odds are a little shorter than I normally target, at over 3:1, he still brings solid value and a great chance of delivering a Sunday night Schwarbomb.
