The Tigers and Red Sox play the final game of their four-game series on Monday, April 20.
Boston is a -136 moneyline favorite, while Detroit is +113 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under eight runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Tigers vs. Red Sox game.
Tigers vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The Red Sox were expected to compete for the AL East title this season. That hasn’t been the case thus far as the team is 8-13 in mid-April. They get one more game against the Tigers before a home series vs. the Yankees.
Sonny Gray will start the series finale in an underwhelming season. He has a 4.43 ERA across 20.1 innings, but what’s most concerning is his lack of strikeouts. He has just 11 strikeouts and a 4.9 K/9 through four starts. This isn’t typical of him, as he’s been around the 8-11 K/9 range his entire career.
Gray has elicited at least nine ground balls in each start this season. He’s also allowed at least nine fly balls in three of four games. It’s a dangerous and unsustainable approach for a typical strikeout pitcher. On the bright side, he’s only walked four batters.
Jack Flaherty is starting for the Tigers, which isn’t much of an advantage for the visiting team. He’s averaging about a strikeout per inning, but he still has a 4.05 ERA across four starts. His walks, however, are up to 14.
If Boston can remain patient, walks will come. Otherwise, the pathway to victory isn’t super clear. Flaherty only has one poor outing: a five-run, three-hit, four-walk performance in 4.0 innings against the Cardinals. He only allowed one or two earned runs in the other three starts.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Pick, Best Bet
Detroit is on the road, and Flaherty’s walks are concerning, but he’s been solid otherwise. Aside from one poor performance, he’s been a quality starter for the team.
That’s enough of an advantage to take down the struggling Red Sox for the third time this series.
