After a wild opening round of the NCAA Tournament, we’ve reached the Sweet 16. We’ll have four games on Thursday night and another four on Friday to determine the Elite Eight field over the weekend. Here’s are some bets to consider for the Round of 16 games.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Saint John’s (Friday 7:10pm ET in Washington DC)
This one features a matchup of elite defenses, and the pace will be the key to the game. Saint John’s has been the top defense in the country at times over the last six weeks, but it’s Duke that check in with the nation’s top defensive efficiency on KenPom. The Red Storm aren’t far behind, though, ranking 8th by the same metrics. The Johnnies will attempt to push the pace, but it’ll be hard to speed the Blue Devils up. Duke is just 281st in adjusted tempo, and generally the better team is able to set the tone in the game, especially with a rebounding edge to earn more possessions. Both teams are on strong runs to the under, with Duke cashing unders at 12-5 over its last 17. The Red Storm have been even better at 11-1 to the under over their last 12. I like that trend to continue on Friday.
CBB Pick: UNDER 141.5 (-110)
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama (Friday 7:35pm ET in Chicago, IL)
This is another game that should feature and elite combination of pace and offense. Michigan ranks 6th in offensive efficiency, and Alabama is even better at third in the nation. That’s why these teams are among the top of the board in points per game, with the Wolverines averaging over 87 and the Crimson Tide at nearly 92 per game. Neither team will be shy to slow things down, as Bama is 4th in adjusted tempo and Michigan is 22nd. Like Arizona, Michigan holds huge advantages on the glass and defensively. Alabama’s defense is a huge issue, ranking 60th in defensive efficiency, and outside of the top-100 over the last six weeks. Michigan’s team total is likely worth a look at 91.5, with Alabama give up 92-plus points 11 times this season. Michigan topped that number 12 times, and scored 90 or more on 14 occasions. I like the over on both the team total and for Bama to do its part to score in the game. The Tide jack up north of 35 triples per game, and if they are playing from behind they will only speed the pace up and look for quicker heaves.
CBB Pick: OVER 173.5 (-108)
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee (Friday 10:10pm ET in Chicago, IL)
Check out my full analysis on this game right here on DraftKings Network.
