No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee College Basketball prediction, preview (10:10 ET on Friday in Chicago, IL)
Iowa State and Tennessee will meet in the nightcap on Friday night in Chicago to determine who advances to the Elite Eight. It should be a very competitive game, and while I lean to the Cyclones side, I could make the case for either team as the right side.
But when it comes to the total, I see the under as the correct play. Both teams are elite on the defensive side of the ball and also like to slow down the pace. Iowa State is 204th in adjusted tempo, while Tennessee is all the way down at 306th, per KenPom. The Cyclones rank fifth in defensive efficiency, and the Vols aren’t far behind at 14th by the same metrics.
ISU has put forward some stellar defensive efforts all season, but just in the month of March it has held Kentucky to 63 points in the NCAA Tournament, Texas Tech to 53 in the Big 12 Tournament and an elite Arizona offense to 73 points in the regular season — a loss in which the Cyclones scored just 57 points against a fellow top defense.
Tennessee has also forced some lower scoring games, most impressively against teams with elite offenses that like to push the pace. Two of its three matchups against Vanderbilt went under, including a 69-65 win. The Vols also swept the season series against Alabama, which ranks top-five in both offensive efficiency and adjusted tempo. That was a result of controlling the pace of the game, as Tennessee won those games by holding the Tide to an average of 71 points.
Given the match in style here, we should see both teams trying to slow it down. Joshua Jefferson, one of the Cyclones’ best offensive players, missed the Kentucky game and is questionable on Friday. His absence would hurt Iowa State on offense, and if he does suit up, I’d expect him to be limited. The Cyclones are on a 12-6 run to the under entering this matchup, while the Vols have gone 7-2 to the under over their last nine games.
These teams also don’t make you pay at the free throw line, so we should see some points left on the table there. Tennessee ranks 281st nationally in free throw percentage at just 69.6%. Iowa State is even worse, ranking 330th at 67.7%. I’m expecting to see this game played in the 60’s which would cash the under.
