Now that the first round of the NCAA Tournament is behind us, the board tightens up over the weekend. I already have some futures on teams to reach the Sweet 16, which means I’ll be riding the likes of Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Illinois and Houston to win in the Round of 32. That’s a good amount of sides/games that I don’t need to add to, but a couple of plays for the Saturday games do stand out.
Here are some plays I’d consider adding for the NCAA Tournament games on Saturday, March 21.
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Texas (Saturday 7:10pm ET in Portland, OR)
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 7 Miami (Sunday 12:10pm ET in Saint Louis, MO)
Texas is on a nice run with two tournament wins already as the short underdog, beating NC State in the First Four and then BYU in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Now the Longhorns play for the third time since Tuesday against a much tougher opponent in Gonzaga. It should be a pro-Zags crowd in the Portland area, with a significant rest advantage on their side as well.
The Bulldogs do one thing very well that neither NC State or BYU do at all — play defense. Gonzaga ranks ninth in defensive efficiency on KenPom, compared to 86 for NC State and 57 for BYU. That doesn’t even tell the whole story, though. The Zags have been consistently a top-20 defense at all stages of the season, but the Wolfpack and Cougars have been slipping as the season goes on. When Texas faced them, they were basically at their worst. Since February 1, NC State ranks 217th in defensive efficiency, while BYU is 143rd.
While the Longhorns can compete with the Zags offensively, I’m confident Gonzaga can get the stops. Texas ranks outside of the top-100 on defense.
Purdue seems to be returning to form at the right time this season. After dominating the Big Ten Tournament, the Boilermakers should be fresh for an early Sunday tip against Miami. That’s a big disadvantage for the Hurricanes to try and stop the nation’s top offense on an extremely quick turnaround. The Canes defeated Missouri well past midnight on Friday night, and now have less than 36 hours until tipoff.
CBB Pick: Gonzaga/Purdue ML Parlay (-130)
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 12 High Point (Saturday 9:45pm ET in Portland, OR)
The nightcap on Saturday night should be a fun one, as Arkansas and High Point have potential for a barn burner. Both teams have been terrific over bets on the season, with the Hogs 20-15 to the over and the Panthers 21-11. Both teams went over their totals on Thursday in the first round, with Arkansas dropping 97 on Hawaii and High Point giving Wisconsin’s 51st-ranked defense 83 points. Arkansas’ metrics grade out pretty close to Wisconsin, and it plays at an even more rapid pace (20th in adjusted tempo).
The 97-point explosion by the Razorbacks was even more impressive considering who it was against. Hawaii actually ranks 43rd in defensive efficiency. High Point ranks just 161st in defensive efficiency, and will not be afraid to match the pace with Arkansas, ranking top-50 in tempo. This should be a fun one against two high-powered offenses. I won’t let the number scare me off here.
