One of my favorite markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook during March Madness is betting teams to reach the Sweet 16. While National Championship and Final Four markets are popular all season, the Sweet 16 market let’s you see the bracket first, and back a team that you feel has a good chance to win two games and advance past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
That feels like a much more realistic expectation for a lot of these teams that we want to bet on, but don’t ultimately feel they are good enough to reach the Final Four or win it all. Keep in mind, we can also parlay these markets, giving us even more creativity. Here are some Sweet 16 futures I placed ahead of 2026 March Madness.
Sweet 16: Michigan State (-130)
This was the first future I placed after seeing the bracket reveal, and I gave it out on Monday’s DraftKings Network Daily Bets podcast. Not to be that guy telling you “Izzo in March,” but things do set up pretty nicely for Tom Izzo’s squad, at least as it pertains to the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State is a 16-point favorite over North Dakota State in the opening round, and I expect Sparty to be locked in off a poor loss to UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament. Assuming MSU does not go down as roughly a -200 favorite on the moneyline, it would then face the winner of the South Florida/Louisville game. USF is a trendy upset pick, and if they were to take down the Cardinals, we’d be looking at Sparty as a huge favorite in the second round. Even if chalk comes through with Louisville, the loss of Mikel Brown Jr. really hurts, and would make Michigan State a sizable favorite.
Sweet 16: Vanderbilt (-110)
Vandy squares off against a solid McNeese team in the opening round, but the Cowboys aren’t sneaking up on anybody this year. McNeese has been a popular upset pick seemingly each of the last three tournaments, and did pull it off as a 12-seed over Clemson last March. The Commodores are well aware of this, and won’t be letting their guard down. They’ve been a top-10 offense all season, and while McNeese is strong on the defensive side of the ball, this will be a much tougher task. Assuming Nebraska can get its first NCAA Tournament victory in program history over Troy, it sets up an intriguing second-round matchup. The Huskers are also elite on defense, but their offense has completely fallen off a cliff — 146th in offensive efficiency over the last month. Vandy just showed extremely high upside with its win over Florida in the SEC Tournament.
Sweet 16: Texas Tech (+115)
Texas Tech has a very nice path to the Sweet 16, but the perception is that the Red Raiders are not a true contender without JT Toppin. While National Championship hopes are likely out the window, Tech is still very capable of making a run. Toppin tore his ACL on February 17th in a loss to Arizona State, but the metrics still say the Red Raiders are elite. Since that game, Texas Tech ranks 13th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Akron has been a trendy underdog pick, but I like Tech to advance, which likely means a matchup against Alabama. Aden Holloway has run into some legal trouble and will be out for an Alabama team that ranks 109th in defensive efficiency over the last month and is an extremely high variance team when it isn’t hitting from downtown. I like the Red Raiders to win a couple games in March Madness.
Sweet 16 Parlay: Illinois/Houston (-145)
These are two big favorites to parlay together and we’re still laying some juice, but the paths for both teams are excellent. Each of them have been bet up as first round favorites of 23 or more points, and Penn and Idaho are simply not equipped to pull an upset of this magnitude. That would leave Illinois with a second round matchup of UNC or VCU, in which it would hold huge advantages on offense and on the glass. Houston would see the winner of Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M, and be a sizable favorite. These teams would play each other in a tremendous game in the Sweet 16 since they are in the same bracket. That’s a tough one to pick, but I’d be stunned if we don’t see both teams play each other in the second weekend of the tournament.
