After the first big event of the season, the PGA TOUR rolls on with the Valspar Championship in Tampa, Florida. With the Valspar Championship, DraftKings users can play in DraftKings PGA Pick6 contests for all four rounds. If you’re new, Pick6 is a single-user daily fantasy game where you select players to go over or under the totals.
Players teeing things up at the Valspar Championship will take on the treacherous Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort just outside Tampa Bay. This is a longer Par 71, with five par 3s, that typically doesn’t allow many birdies. It also has one of the toughest finishing stretches in golf — the Snake Pit. Winning scores for this event fluctuate, but winners lately haven’t been better than -12.
I reviewed additional statistics and course dynamics in the Valspar Championship PGA Cheat Sheet and included some notes on the course below for Pick6 research.
“Six of the last 11 editions of the Valspar Championship at Copperhead have produced winning scores of 10-under par or worse. Scoring conditions eased slightly in 2021 and 2022, but the rough was grown up again in 2023, bringing it closer to the greens to punish off-target shots, and Copperhead returned to its usual tougher standard. The last two seasons have been extremely difficult, with the winner reaching just 11-under or 12-under par, and the cut line at even par for the week.
Copperhead is unique in that it’s a par 71 but features five (yes, five) par 3s and four par 5s. Birdies can be had on the par 5s, but the majority of them are anything but pushovers and require three good shots to even sniff a birdie putt. Placement off the tee on the par 5s and longer par 4s is crucial, as the parkland setting has several doglegs built into the course design, plus heavy rough, which means that getting too wild off the tee will force layups.
The course itself isn’t brutally long, but it does play longer than its yardage due to both the doglegs and the thicker rough. Long iron approaches this week will be plentiful, with the two most popular approach baskets being between 175-200 yards and 200+ yards. This almost always means more missed greens in regulation than normal, and we often see GIR% at this event trend 5% to 10% lower than the PGA TOUR average.
With water prevalent, and placement being such a big factor, there is little doubt we need players capable of a great all-around effort on the stat sheet. Great long-iron play is essential, and a credible off-the-tee game is a must. In 2023, three of the top five finishers gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach for the week, and every single one of them gained strokes off the tee, as well — even if it wasn’t as significant as the gains they made on approach. In 2024, the top two finishers (Peter Malnati and Cameron Young) gained 3.5 and 5.0 strokes OTT, respectively, while last year’s winner (Viktor Hovland) gained 1.9 strokes OTT and over 5.8 strokes on approach.
While strokes gained off the tee and approach stats will remain critical to success, much like Bay Hill, the overseeded Poa greens at Copperhead do lend themselves to big putting spikes. Recent winners have gained more strokes on putts than in any other area. In 2024, Malnati ranked third in SG: PUTT for the week, gaining 8.4 strokes on the greens. Each of the last five winners has gained +4.9 strokes or more putting.”
As of now, we have Round 1 totals up on the Pick6 site for play, so that’s where we’ll be focusing this week. The players out first are expected to have slightly better conditions with winds picking up throughout the day. If you’re targeting stroke totals or birdie-or-better totals, keep that in mind.
Let’s break down a few of my favorite plays for Round 1.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Plays for Valspar Championship
Mac Meissner Less Than 71.5 strokes
Meissner is coming off two missed cuts in a row, but neither result was particularly bad. He missed the cut on the number last week at Sawgrass and really only struggled with putting, an area that he’s generally been great at in recent seasons. Just given the overall consistency that Meisner’s shown over the last six months, I’d certainly be pegging him for a decent comeback performance this week.
He’s accurate off the tee, and his results at Valspar have shown that he likes a tougher challenge, having made the cut here in each of the past two tournaments. Last year, he also shot 70 or better in three of his four rounds, and in 2024, shot 68 or better twice around this difficult track. With him having started well in several events in January and February, taking a bullish stance for him to shoot better than his total looks like a solid way to attack Round 1 for Pick6 lineups.
Corey Conners More Than 8.5 fairways hit
Conners is one of the most accurate strikers of the ball off the tee. He’s fourth in driving accuracy on the PGA TOUR and last week ranked 10th in accuracy at Sawgrass, hitting an average of 9.75 fairways per round. Copperhead doesn’t give us as many opportunities for fairways hit, with five par 3s in play, but the Par 5s also demand clubbing down in certain spots as they often play as three-shot holes, regardless of your power off the tee.
Overall, Conners showcased classy ball-striking again last week by gaining over 2.0 strokes off the tee, and he should be pretty jazzed about getting to tackle a supreme shotmaker’s course in Copperhead. The wind doesn’t look terrible for Round 1, so putting him on the card for nine or more fairways in Round 1 feels like a decent add at what is generally a very low total for a player of his caliber.
Patrick Cantlay More Than 3.5 birdies or better
Cantlay is coming in off an innocuous PLAYERS, where he finished T32 and lost strokes on approach. Before that, he had a disastrous second round at Bay Hill, which saw him miss the cut. Still, I’d put Cantlay’s form as much better than it looks on paper. He’s been one of the best on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained off the tee stats, and his approach game was much better before Bay Hill.
Overall, if Cantlay’s putter wakes up, he could make some noise soon. Last weekend, he gained strokes with the putter in each of his final two rounds, so there have been some positive signs there of late, and certainly, he now has some momentum he can ride into the Copperhead Course, where he finished second on his debut back in 2017. I’d be happy to take a bullish stance on him for Round 1, and his lower 3.5 BoB total looks well worth taking on here, given how well he putted on the weekend at Sawgrass.
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