The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history, and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
The Valspar Championship remains one of the more underrated stops on the PGA TOUR. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is one of the best venues on the schedule, offering players a fair but tough test with plenty of winding holes, lots of water, and thick rough. The placement on the schedule (after two big events in a row) means that we don’t have a ton of elite players, but with Augusta on the horizon, some have decided to use this as one of their final warmup events. Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, and Justin Thomas are all in the field—as of writing—along with past Valspar champion Jordan Spieth.
The field maxes out at 144 players this week, and there could certainly be some more withdrawals as the week goes on. Some young players in the field to keep an eye on include Marco Penge, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Ricky Castillo. As with most regular PGA stops, the cut will take place after Friday’s round, and the top 65 players and ties will play the weekend.
The Course
Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Golf Resort—Palm Harbor, Florida
Par 71, 7,340 yards
Copperhead has hosted this event since its inception in 2000. The tournament moved on the calendar in 2007, and the course has generally played tougher since then, so looking at course history before 2007 isn’t particularly useful. Another key note this week is that the course underwent major renovations to the greens, fairways, and select bunkers after 2015. While the overall design of the course didn’t change much (if at all), the updates appear to have made an already difficult track even tougher.
Six of the last 11 editions of the Valspar Championship at Copperhead have produced winning scores of 10-under par or worse. Scoring conditions eased slightly in 2021 and 2022, but the rough was grown up again in 2023, bringing it closer to the greens to punish off-target shots, and Copperhead returned to its usual tougher standard. The last two seasons have been extremely difficult, with the winner reaching just 11- or 12-under par and the cut line at even par for the week.
Copperhead is unique in that it’s a par 71 but features five (yes, five) par 3s and four par 5s. Birdies can be had on the par 5s, but the majority of them are anything but pushovers and require three good shots to even sniff a birdie putt. Placement off the tee on the par 5s and longer par 4s is crucial, as the parkland setting has several doglegs built into the course design, plus heavy rough, which means that getting too wild off the tee will force layups.
The course itself isn’t brutally long, but it does play longer than its yardage due to both the doglegs and the thicker rough. Long iron approaches this week will be plentiful, with the two most popular approach baskets being between 175-200 yards and 200+ yards. This almost always means more missed greens in regulation than normal, and we often see GIR% at this event trend 5-10% lower than the PGA TOUR average.
With water prevalent and placement being such a big factor, there is little doubt we need players capable of a great all-around effort on the stat sheet. Great long-iron play is essential, and a credible off-the-tee game is a must. In 2023, three of the top five finishers gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach for the week, and every single one of them gained strokes off the tee as well—even if it wasn’t as significant as the gains they made on approach. In 2024, the top two finishers (Malnati and Cameron Young) gained 3.5 and 5.0 strokes OTT, respectively, while last year’s winner (Hovland) gained 1.9 strokes OTT and over 5.8 strokes on approach.
While strokes gained off the tee and approach stats will remain critical to success, much like Bay Hill, the overseeded Poa greens at Copperhead do lend themselves to big putting spikes. Recent winners have gained more strokes on putts than in any other area. In 2024, Malnati ranked third in SG: PUTT for the week, gaining 8.4 strokes on the greens. Each of the last five winners (Burns x2, Hovland, Moore, and Malnati) has now gained +4.9 strokes or more putting.
The putting variance also means this event has produced several long-shot winners. Burns was 80-1 when he won in 2021, as was Taylor Moore in 2023. Malnati was also a huge long shot in 2024, going off well into the triple digits. For DFS research, elite approach games and long-iron proximity are important stats to track, but looking for players capable of spiking on the greens is prudent as well, especially when looking down the board for GPP boom-or-bust type candidates.
2026 Weather Outlook: Temperatures look slightly cooler than normal for this year’s event, with highs around 65-70F for all four days, with Sunday being the warmest day, so the cooler temperatures should keep Copperhead playing tough and long. Additionally, day one has winds forecast at 15-18 mph, with afternoon winds picking up slightly. The wind does die down a bit on Friday and again on the weekend. As of now, it’s too tight to call a wave advantage, but certainly, given how hard this course plays, even a slight easing of the wind on Friday afternoon could give the Thursday AM / Friday PM wave the advantage.
Last Five Winners
2025: Viktor Hovland -11 (over Justin Thomas -10)
2024: Peter Malnati -12 (over Cameron Young -10)
2023: Taylor Moore -10 (over Adam Schenk -9)
2022: Sam Burns -17 (in a playoff over Davis Riley)
2021: Sam Burns -17 (over Keegan Bradley -14)
Winning Trends
- 10 of the past 11 Valspar Championship winners had recorded at least one top 10 on the season before their victory here (Sam Burns had posted a T3 at the Genesis before winning in 2021, and a T9 at the API before winning in 2022).
- The last seven winners had played this event at least one time before winning.
- However, both Casey (2018) and Moore (2023) had missed the cut at Copperhead in their only other appearance before winning.
Winners Stats
Viktor Hovland (11-under-par, 2025)
2025 lead-in form (MC-MC-MC-T22-T36)
- SG: OTT — 1.9
- SG: APP — 5.8
- SG: TOTAL— 13.9
- SG: ATG — -1.5
- SG: PUTT — 7.3
Burns dominated on the greens at Copperhead in 2022. He gained over 9.0 strokes putting in 2021 on his way to winning, and had another lights-out putting performance in 2022.
Burns had played Valspar twice before his initial win in 2021 and had gained over 6.0 strokes putting on each of those previous starts.
Hovland had a top-five finish at this event in a previous season.
Winners have all tended to excel in the approach category, much like Moore in 2023, who gained 5.1 strokes on approach. Four of the top-five finishers from 2023 gained over 4.0 strokes on approach. Hovland gained 5.8 strokes on APP last year.
Prior to Moore’s win in 2023, each of the winners at Copperhead from 2015 onward had gained over 1.0 strokes ATG for the week, with several gaining over 2.5 strokes around the greens.
Putting still remains a dominant stat, with winners tending to gain the most strokes via their flatstick.
Last five winners: Hovland +7.3 PUTT; Malnati +8.4 SG: PUTT; Moore +4.9 SG: PUTT; Burns +5.2 SG: PUTT; Burns +9.1 SG: PUTT
Finding Values on DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Nick Taylor +3800 and $8,400
Comparables:
- Ryo Hisatsune +4200 and $8,600
- Keegan Bradley +4400 and $8,500
Pierceson Coody +6100 and $7,700
Comparables:
Max Homa +6000 and $7,600
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 and $7,600
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook are subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
(These players have had a lot of success at this event over their careers.)
Adam Hadwin (best finishes: win-2017, T5-2024): Hadwin is another past Valspar champion. His record at Copperhead has been very boom-or-bust over the past six years, with three missed cuts but also finishes of T5 in 2024, T12 in 2018, and T7 in 2022, along with his win in 2017.
Justin Thomas (best finishes: T3-2022, 2nd-2025): Thomas has come close to winning this event twice before. The American finished T3 here in 2022 and has placed inside the top 20 in five of his six career starts at Copperhead. Last year, he finished second to Hovland and held the lead briefly down the stretch. This setup really highlights his iron play—he gained 7.4 strokes on approach at this venue in 2022.
Lucas Glover (best finishes: T11-2024, T13-2019): Glover’s elite ball-striking makes it no surprise that he’s handled this winding, accuracy-focused layout well. The putter has kept him from truly contending recently, but he’s still recorded multiple top-15 finishes at Copperhead over the past five seasons.
Jordan Spieth (best finishes: win-2015, 2023-T3): Spieth has shown plenty of fondness for this course, even if he doesn’t play here every season. He won in 2015 back on his historic run, which included a Masters win, and finished T3 back in 2023.
Recent Form
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800; 2nd-T41): Fitzpatrick made a huge run at THE PLAYERS last weekend but came up just short. Overall, he’s shown some very good form this season and should be a threat this week.
Jacob Bridgeman ($9,600; T5-T18-win): Bridgeman’s huge run continued last week. He finished in the top five at this event last season, and with the way he’s hitting the ball he could contend once again.
Ricky Castillo ($7,900; T70-win-T5): Castillo fell back a bit last week at THE PLAYERS but has been on a great run this season, grabbing his first win at Puerto Rico two weeks ago.
Ryo Hisatsune ($8,600; T13-T33): Hisatsune has been all over leaderboards this year and looked good again last weekend, taking home a top 20. He’s a player who looks primed for a first-time win soon.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,600; T11-T24): Rodgers is quietly playing some very good golf. His iron play has taken a tick up of late, and he posted his best-ever finish at Sawgrass last week with a T11.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Big Field Punt plays:
David Ford ($6,900): Ford has the requisite iron play to take apart a course like Copperhead, even if the rest of his game can be a roller coaster. He remains a high-risk, high-upside play I like to target in weaker fields.
Zecheng Dou ($6,700): Dou has shown some improved iron play this season. While he didn’t make the cut last week, he rolled off two top 20s beforehand and certainly is the sort of player whose form looks attractive at these levels.
Matti Schmid ($7,100) – see below
Core Plays:
Sahith Theegala ($8,800): Theegala continues to look solid in his comeback season. He’s posted a top 10 here in the past and has the right sort of high-end iron play and short game to excel at Copperhead.
Alex Smalley ($7,800): Smalley has been rolling along with some solid results this season and has been solid in almost every facet of the game. He does have a top-30 result at this course from a past season and is the sort of longshot we have seen outperform here.
Contrarian Click:
Patrick Rodgers ($7,600): Rodgers is not a lock to keep his roll going, but given the history of this event and the need for great lag putting on the greens, I’d rate Rodgers as a live outsider this week. His long game is in good form at the moment, and he should be a name with lower ownership in larger field GPPs this week.
MY PICK: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
Cantlay certainly fits the bill of several recent Valspar winners. He’s coming off an innocuous PLAYERS, where he finished T32 and lost strokes on approach, and before that, had a disastrous second round at Bay Hill, which saw him miss the cut. Still, I’d put Cantlay’s form as much better than it looks on paper. He’s been one of the best on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained off the tee stats, and his approach game was much better before Bay Hill.
Overall, if Cantlay’s putter wakes up, he could make some noise soon. Last weekend, he gained strokes with the putter in each of his final two rounds, so there have been some positive signs there of late, and certainly, he now has some momentum he can ride into the Copperhead Course, where he finished 2nd on his debut back in 2017.
At $9,400, I don’t expect him to be uber popular for DraftKings DFS play, which makes him a solid contrarian target in my books, and for outright betting, the +2200 in this weaker field still offers some decent value.
MY SLEEPER: Matti Schmid ($7,100)
Schmid comes in carrying some quiet momentum to this year’s event. He placed top-10 in two of his last three starts, including T9 in Florida just across the state at PGA National a few weeks ago. He showcased solid ball-striking there and followed that up with a T5 in Puerto Rico, where he finished T3 in GIR%.
His record at Copperhead is positive as well. While he can be inconsistent, the German has placed T17 and T28 here the last two seasons and showed some affinity for the greens here in 2024 as he gained 4.2 strokes with the putter. His 2nd-place finish at last season’s Colonial is also worth noting, as Colonial has a good correlation with Copperhead, with both venues having tight, winding holes, and it is also a course where recent Valspar winner Sam Burns has picked up a win.
Overall, while Schmid carries a little more risk than some of the other players in his range, his upside is markedly better in many respects. I like the form he’s shown of late, and with the course looking like a great fit, there is little reason not to include him in larger field GPP lineups this week, or target him for placement bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook, where he’s +10000 for an outright and +710 for top 10 and ties.
