It’s been a great start to the week at THE PLAYERS Championship, and moving day should have even more drama in store. Ludvig Aberg has started strong and has a two-stroke lead at the start of Round 3, with a stacked leaderboard behind him that includes Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Justin Thomas and Maverick McNealy in the top 10. A total of 73 players made the cut and will play Round 3 in pairs, all starting from the first tee. Let’s take a look at the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some of my best bets for Round 3 of THE PLAYERS Championship.
Here’s a look at the weather forecast for Saturday, which looks dry with winds picking up as we get later in the day. Easier conditions should be available for players early in the day, but later in the day things could be more difficult.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 3 on Saturday, March 14, with a focus on the players teeing off in the afternoon.
Round 3 – 18 Hole Matchup – Rickie Fowler (-116) over Min Woo Lee
While Lee definitely has the ability to go low, Fowler’s steadier approach and strong course history makes him my pick in this 18-hole matchup. Lee plays one group ahead of Fowler at 11:55 a.m. ET, while Fowler plays with Hideki Matsuyama at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Fowler has been very balanced in his attack this season and in his play this week, gaining strokes putting, on approach and off the tee. He starts the day at -2 after a 70 in Round 1 and a 72 in Round 2. He has made double-digit pars in each round and been fairly steady overall, as he has been most of the season, with five top-30 finishes in his five events, including his first top-10 finish of the season last week at Bay Hill.
Lee has been much more volatile. He also starts the day at -2, but he shared the King of the Course title with 13 Birdies or Better. He started his week with a double-bogey on his first hole and had four more bogeys in Round 1, finishing at even par, though, because of all his birdies. Round 2 was more of the same with five bogeys and seven birdies to get to -2.
While Lee has been exciting to watch, I’ll take the more methodical Rickie to get the win in this matchup on Saturday, which definitely brings the most “drip” of any of the head-to-head options.
Cameron Young/Corey Conners Total Number of Birdies or Better o9.5 (+125)
The second-to-last pairing of the day is Cameron Young and Corey Conners, who have both had spectacular tournaments so far. Rather than picking one or the other, for this prop, I’m attacking the total Birdies or Better of the group. You could be more conservative at over 8.5 for -134, but I’ll take the extra juice of boosting this up to 9.5 to make it a plus-money play.
Young starts the day alone in third place at -9 with Conners right behind at -8. Between the two of them, they have 23 Birdies or Better in their two rounds this week (11.5 per round).
Young has made 11 birdies and just two bogeys this week, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach. He made five birdies in Round 1 and six birdies in Round 2, finishing on Friday with four birdies in his last eight holes to push his way up the leaderboard.
Young is coming off a T-7 at the Genesis Invitational and a T-3 at the API last week, so his game is in great form as he looks to chase down the leaders going into Sunday’s Final Round. In each of his last two moving days, Young has made six birdies in Round 3, and if he can put up a similar result on Saturday, he could carry the load in this prop.
Conners is also very capable of doing the lion’s share of the work in this prop. He has 12 Birdies or Better so far this tournament, coming up just one short of tying Lee and Rico Hoey for King of the Course honors. Conners had four birdies and a bogey in Round 1, but he came out firing on Friday with four straight birdies and posted six birdies or better on the front nine, highlighted by this hole-out eagle:
Conners is third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is his specialty. If he stays so dialed in on Saturday, he should continue his strong run of recent results. He hasn’t been quite as high on the leaderboard as Young lately because of his streaky putting, but as he showed yesterday, he can definitely get on a heater and do his part to reach 10 Birdies or Better to deliver the win on this Round 3 best bet.
Ludvig Aberg u70.5 Round 3 Score (-112)
Let’s close out the Round 3 best bets with a play on Aberg’s score. While the conditions could be a contributing factor, the steady Swede has looked excellent so far this tournament with a 69 in Round 1 (when he was in my best bets), and an even better 63 in Round 2.
Aberg has been locked in all week and didn’t card a bogey until his 33rd hole of the tournament. He overcame that slip-up yesterday with six birdies and two eagles to build this lead. Aberg hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since last year’s victory at Torrey Pines in The Genesis Invitational, but he looks ready to go on the kind of dominant run his potential has always hinted at being possible.
The 26-year-old leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has hit 27 of 36 greens in regulation and hit 19 of 28 fairways. His shotmaking has been outstanding and should set him up for another solid round on Saturday.
He has posted progressively better finishes of T-37, T-20 and T-3 over his last three tournaments, and he looks ready to continue that trend with a win this week. He only has to go -2 or better to hit this prop, and if he stays in his current form, he should have no trouble getting under this prop on Saturday.
