The PGA TOUR has returned to TPC Sawgrass for one of the biggest early-season events of the year. Whether you like the “fifth major” label or hate it, the event is a fun one with a great field on a very recognizable and difficult layout. Round 1 has 123 players in the full field, with the threesomes going off from hole No. 1 and hole No. 10 starting at 7:40 a.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some of my best bets for Round 1 of THE PLAYERS Championship.
The weather forecast for Thursday is one to watch carefully. A storm is expected to roll through in the middle of the day, which could bring gusty winds, making it difficult for either the end of the morning wave or the start of the afternoon wave. The exact timing of the storm will be important since after the storm (and possible delay), winds could be much calmer with greens more receptive. The slight advantage looks like it will go to the afternoon wave, but since the timing is uncertain, I’m going to avoid matchups or props that force the two waves to go head-to-head.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1 on Thursday, March 11.
Round 1 – 3 Ball Winner – Akshay Bhatia (+122) over Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau
Let’s start out with a 3-ball winner from the trio teeing off at 8:28 a.m. ET from hole No. 10. In that group, Akshay Bhatia will play alongside Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau, who are both very recognizable names but haven’t had nearly the recent success that Bhatia has shown.
I highlighted Bhatia in my cash game plays for DFS, and I also think he should finish Round 1 ahead of both Koepka and Finau. The 24-year-old has finished in the top 15 in four straight events dating back to his T3 at the WM Phoenix Open. He caught Daniel Berger with a flourish at the end of Sunday’s Final Round to claim his third PGA TOUR career win, and he’ll look to carry that momentum to Sawgrass this week, where he finished T3 last year.
Koepka will be playing THE PLAYERS for the first time since 2022, when he missed the cut with a 72-81. He did finish in the top 16 in two of his seven career appearances, but those were in 2017 and 2018. He comes in with a little bit of form after a T9 at the Cognizant at PGA National, but he missed the cut in Phoenix and didn’t play at Bay Hill last week. He is the bigger threat to Bhatia in this group, but even he has opened with 73, 75 and 74 in his three Round 1’s since returning to the PGA TOUR this season.
Finau is a fan favorite and one of my personal go-to options, but he hasn’t shown enough form to be a consideration this week. He has missed the cut in three of his six tournaments this season and hasn’t played the last two weeks in Florida, while Bhatia was making plenty of noise at Bay Hill. Even when he was at his best, Sawgrass hasn’t been a great fit for Finau, who missed the cut last year and in three of his last five trips to this event with a T19 in 2023 his best career showing.
With much better form and a higher ceiling based on his recent results on this course, Bhatia to take this three-ball is definitely one of my Round 1 best bets.
Ludvig Aberg Round Score – Round 1 u70.5 (+108)
Collectively, the DK Network team is all about Aberg this week. I picked him in my cash game plays, my colleague Alex Hunter has him in his best bets for the tournament, and Blake Krass has Aberg picked for DraftKings Sportsbook’s King of the Course.
Aberg comes into Round 1 off a blistering finish at Bay Hill, and it’s easy to fall in love with his iron game, especially given the demands of TPC Sawgrass. Aberg started last week with a 66 and finished with a 67, and with his strong showing at the end of the West Coast swing, he has gone under this prop line in eight of his last 12 rounds.
Last year, Aberg missed the cut at THE PLAYERS, going over this prop in both rounds. But in 2024, he finished solo-eighth with three rounds of 67 around an ugly 73 in Round 2.
With how sharp his irons were at the API, though, Aberg should be set to take the course by storm if he stays in form, so he should be able to get at least -2 in Round 1, going under this prop line.
J.J. Spaun u3.5 Birdies or Better (+110)
Spaun was the runner-up last year at THE PLAYERS, losing in a playoff to Rory McIlroy. He went on to win the U.S. Open in the best season of his PGA TOUR career. He comes back to Sawgrass struggling, though, so I’m taking him to make three birdies or fewer in Round 1.
Spaun was actually under this prop line in Round 4 last year, as he managed just an even-par Final Round to get into the playoff. The real reason I’m taking the under isn’t that showing, though, it’s how little momenum he’s been able to get in 2026.
In his five starts this season, Spaun finished T40 at the Sony Open and T45 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He missed the cut in his other three events, including both The Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Those two events only had light cuts, but he still didn’t manage to get to the weekend.
Spaun had only four birdies in two rounds at Bay Hill and six birdies in two rounds at Riviera Country Club, coming in under this prop line in four straight rounds.
Even if his play improves enough to get through the cut and to the weekend, getting four birdies or better at Sawgrass is a tall task. Spaun’s game just isn’t in strong enough form to play the over, so the under becomes a nice plus-money pick.
