Fan favorite lightweights run it back Saturday night, as Max Holloway defends his BMF title against Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC 326 in Las Vegas.
Holloway (27–8, 23–8 UFC) is riding high after spoiling Dustin Poirier’s retirement fight in a lopsided unanimous decision last July. Oliveira (36–11, 24–11 UFC, 1 NC) is coming off a second-round submission over Mateusz Gamrot in October.
The contenders first met in August 2015, when Holloway won via first-round TKO after Oliveira suffered an apparent neck injury.
The BMF champion enters as a -220 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Oliveira sits as a +170 underdog.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2. Check out DraftKings UFCPick6 for my favorite picks for Saturday’s UFC event.
Max Holloway More Than 92.5 Significant Strikes
Max Holloway has racked up the most significant strikes in UFC history, and he looks poised to add at least 93 more against Charles Oliveira in Saturday night’s main event.
While the BMF champ has cleared that mark in just three of his last five fights, he’s dipped below it only three times over the past decade. His highest output came in January 2021, when he landed a jaw-dropping 445 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar — shattering his previous UFC record of 290 set against Brian Ortega in December 2018.
Most recently, Holloway piled up 198 significant strikes against Dustin Poirier. Reaching half that total against Oliveira feels like a formality.
Caio Borralho More Than 14:30 Fight Time
Saturday’s co-main event features a pair of formidable grapplers, Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder, a matchup that could easily turn into a prolonged striking battle. The “Fighting Nerds” leader should have the edge as the more well-rounded fighter with polished kickboxing and sound takedown defense.
However, “The Natural” isn’t known for aggressively hunting finishes. Borralho owns a modest 53% career finish rate and has just two stoppage victories in the UFC. With an advantage on the feet, expect him to draw things out and win on the scorecards.
Raúl Rosas Jr. More Than 3.5 Takedowns
The last thing Raúl Rosas Jr. wants to do Saturday night is test the striking of seasoned veteran Rob Font — so expect him to start shooting for takedowns from the opening bell.
The 21-year-old grappling merchant averages over four takedowns per fight at 41% accuracy, and he’s cleared 3.5 takedowns in two of his last three bouts. With a major speed and athleticism advantage, “El Niño Problema” should have success in swarming the 38-year-old Font, who owns a concerning 43% takedown defense inside the Octagon.
Michael Johnson More Than 66.5 Fantasy Points
Michael Johnson seems to have caught a second wind late in his career. He rolls into Saturday on a three-fight winning streak, punctuated by a decision over rising prospect Daniel Zellhuber last July.
“The Menace” cleared 66.5 fantasy points in each of those wins and now enters as a favorite against fellow veteran Drew Dober, who has dropped three of his last four bouts.
Even at 39, Johnson’s hands are lightning fast, and his gloves are packed with dynamite. Combined with a notable size advantage, he should thwart Dober’s forward pressure while stacking fantasy points along the way.
Gregory Rodrigues More Than 0.5 Knockouts
Gregory Rodrigues looks for redemption against Brunno Ferreira after being knocked out cold in Ferreira’s UFC debut in January 2023.
Rodrigues has since won five of his last six bouts and remains the more complete fighter, with crisp boxing and a towering size advantage — something he’d be wise to leverage this time around. Still, “Robocop” is a brawler at heart and will likely stay aggressive in his pursuit of a finish.
As long as he avoids wandering into “The Hulk’s” blast radius, Rodrigues is the fighter most likely to deliver the knockout blow.
Xiao Long Less Than 55.5 Significant Strikes
The question isn’t whether Xiao Long can land 55.5 significant strikes — it’s whether Cody Garbrandt can survive them before taking a nap on the canvas.
Long, 27, swings with the force of a wrecking ball. His devastating power was on full display during his official UFC debut in November 2024, when he starched Quang Le with a thunderous right hand in the third round.
Garbrandt, 34, hasn’t been the same since beating Dominick Cruz for the title in 2016. His reckless pursuit of knockouts has left him with a compromised chin — a recipe for disaster against a faster, longer, and stronger opponent like Long.
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Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice, and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
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