Paul Skenes is back on the bump, marking the unofficial start to baseball season. Fresh off his first Cy Young award, as well as back-to-back All-Star Game nods, Pittsburgh’s ace is set to have himself a busy 2026.
It all starts with Team USA and the 2026 World Baseball Classic. Even with AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal only committed to a portion of the tournament, expectations are at an all-time high for the U.S. with Skenes and other big-time talent on the roster for the 2026 WBC.
Of course, it won’t end there for Skenes. But unlike Detroit’s ace, who’s seen postseason action in back-to-back years (posting a 2.04 ERA and 1.91 FIP across six playoff starts), Skenes is still only expected to showcase his talents throughout the regular season — through no fault of his own.
Following the WBC, all eyes will be on Pittsburgh once every five days as Skenes looks to accomplish a pair of rare feats. Right now, a good chunk of DraftKings Sportsbook bettors expect to see the right-hander put forth NL Cy Young-caliber performances once every five days throughout 2026.
2026 NL Cy Young Award Betting Splits
While both the greatest percentage of bets and greatest percentage of handle belong to Skenes, the numbers themselves (39% of the handle on 67% of the bets) indicate the larger-sized bets have been made on other candidates.
The reigning NL Cy Young winner remains a solid choice. The window to back him this season isn’t going to be large either. His odds have already shifted from the opening +350 mark to 225.
However, some things do give reason to fade Skenes this season — or at least limit the level to which you back him on DraftKings Sportsbook.
How many back-to-back Cy Young winners have there been?
If Skenes were to win the 2026 NL Cy Young, he’d be the 13th pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards. Skubal accomplished this feat with last season’s AL Cy Young win, but clearly it’s far from a common occurrence. Pittsburgh’s superstar is capable of doing this, sure, but it’s still a tall task.
When you consider this next potential drawback, Skenes winning the award in 2026 feels even more unlikely.
Has a pitcher ever won a Cy Young in the season they pitched in the World Baseball Classic?
Yes. But, only once.
In the inaugural World Baseball Classic, Johan Santana pitched for Venezuela and also took home the 2006 AL Cy Young Award.
Combining his talent with a lack of health concerns, Skenes could very well be the next pitcher to get this done. But combine the rarity of this occurrence with the uncommon nature of back-to-back Cy Young wins, and it’s a lot to ask.
Other 2026 NL Cy Young Candidates to Consider
The quartet behind Skenes in the “% Handle” column above provide interesting options. Hunter Greene, Cade Horton, Shohei Ohtani and Nolan McLean each have seen six percent of the handle placed on the 2026 NL Cy Young Award.
Like Skenes, Nolan McLean is pitching in the WBC for Team USA. Ohtani is playing in the WBC for Japan, but early reports indicate he won’t be chucking throughout the tournament.
The Mets right-hander is the most surprising of the group. Not because of his talent level, though. First, he doesn’t have a full season under his belt. Second, he’s going to have a heavy workload because of the WBC.
Also worth noting with McLean: Only one percent of the bet slips have gone in his favor. That sort of splits breakdown is generally more favorable than Skenes’, but at just one percent, they don’t carry the same weight as Greene, Ohtani or even Cristopher Sanchez’s splits.
NL Central Aces
Between Skenes, Greene and Horton (never mind Jacob Misiorowski), the NL Central has the most ridiculous grouping of young arms in the game.
The Miz made headlines last season, but he faded. Horton had an electric run in his first big-league campaign, but an injury sidelined him for the postseason. Greene made a lot of noise early in 2026, but he only wound up making 19 regular season starts due to injury. (Cincinnati’s right-hander also had a tough postseason debut.)
Horton carries +7500 longshot odds. His splits carry similar weight to McLean’s. However, Horton has a little more experience. Combine that with those odds and him not playing in the WBC, and the Cubs righty he’s a dart throw to consider.
Greene is fourth in the odds right now at +1400. He was pitching like a Cy Young-caliber pitcher to start the season. By season’s end, he still posted a 2.76 ERA — but he only appeared in 19 games. I’m bullish on Greene in general, and there’s a lot going in his favor from a motivational standpoint this year.
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto Slow Down?
Yamamoto has the second-shortest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook at +500. Believe it or not, at just five percent of the bets, the Dodgers ace has seen the highest percentage of NL Cy Young bets behind Skenes.
Unlike Skenes, the percentage of handle that’s been thrown Yamamoto’s way is similar to the percentage of bets. But like Pittsburgh’s ace, L.A.’s ace is set to play in the WBC. Quite frankly, I don’t know how he’s doing it after that absurd World Series MVP run.
Not sure when it will happen, but I have a hard time imagining fatigue doesn’t set in at some point. Whenever that hits Yamamoto, that chunk of the season is going to be significant enough to take him out of the NL Cy Young race.
NL East Cy Young Candidate
Finishing behind Skenes in the 2026 NL Cy Young voting was Philadelphia’s Sanchez, who had a 6.4 fWAR — narrowly trailing Skubal (6.6) and Skenes (6.5) in the category. Right now, five percent of the handle placed on the 2026 NL Cy Young Award has been on Sanchez, and on just three percent of the bets. Again, like Greene (and Ohtani even), that’s a healthy breakdown.
This dude chucks. He’s been doing so for the last three years. The only reason to expect any drop-off from him would be the same thing I’ve mentioned multiple times now: Sanchez is pitching in the WBC. If that’s not something that concerns you, Philly’s left-hander is a strong option.
Best Bet for 2026 NL Cy Young
A mix of Skenes, Greene, Horton and Sanchez is where I sit right now. That said, when it comes to Greene, my judgment is clouded.
Despite all I said against Skenes, I can’t fully fade him. Above all else, Horton’s odds are what elevate him.
For all my jabbering about WBC concerns, I like Sanchez for a couple reasons. While can run up his sinker, nothing he throws is straight. A dip in velo due to WBC-induced fatigue might not hurt him a whole lot. He’s also a changeup guy — like the only other pitcher who won the Cy Young Award in the same season that he played in the WBC. If I were to only back one NL Cy Young candidate rather than get a piece of multiple, Sanchez would be my guy in 2026
