We’re just a day away from the NBA’s All Star weekend. One of the most exciting events of this weekend will be the State Farm 3-Point contest, featuring eight participants. We’ll see a shootout among Devin Booker, Kon Knueppel, Damian Lillard, Tyrese Maxey, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, Bobby Portis, and Norman Powell. The current favorite to win the Contest at +300 odds is Hornets’ rookie Kon Knueppel, who’s had a tremendous season thus far and is second in ROTY-voting. But today we’ll be looking at Damian Lillard, who trails closely behind at +450.
Dame’s Case to Become 3x Champ
Lillard has won the 3-Point Contest twice in back to back seasons, scoring 26 points both times and shooting 65% both times. In this format, the maximum score was 40 and included two extra long-range shots worth three points each.
Lillard is +450 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the contest against this season, trailing only the aforementioned Knueppel. Knueppel is only a rookie and has never competed in this contest before, but he’s been given the benefit of the doubt due to his spectacular shooting this season. He’s shooting 56% from 2P territory and 43.1% from three on 7.9 attempts per game. His 7.9 attempts are the most by any rookie of all time and his efficiency has been completely otherworldly.
Last season, Damian Lillard shot 34.1% on open threes and 42.7% on wide open threes. But let’s also take a look at Lillard’s numbers in the two consecutive years in which he won the contest, 2023 and 2024.
In 2023, Lillard shot 38.1% on open threes and 39.6% on wide open threes. In 2024, Lillard shot 35% on open threes and 39.9% on wide open threes.
Unfortunately for Lillard, Knueppel this season is shooting 46.8% on open threes and 45.1% on wide open threes, which explains why the odds favor Knueppel thus far. Knueppel’s unprecedented efficiency and his ability to knock down open and wide open shots are a testament to his mettle beyond his years and are a nice indicator of his likelihood of winning the contest.
