It has been a season of ups and downs for TreVeyon Henderson. Like, so many ups and downs.
Remember that Henderson’s first touch in a Patriots’ uniform was a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in Week 1 of the preseason. Needless to say, that opened the eyes and imaginations of prospective season-long fantasy owners. However, the start of the actual season was not so rose-colored. In his first seven games, Henderson was held below 35 rushing yards in every contest, culminating with a underwhelming performance in Week 7 against the Titans that saw the rookie held to five rushing yards and without a reception. It was at this point that people were starting to consider dropping the highly-touted second-round pick. It’s also when things began to turn for the better.
Henderson racked up 75 rushing yards in Week 8, then took advantage of an injury to Rhamondre Stevenson to reel off massive statistical showings against both the Buccaneers and the Jets. Add a couple of multi-touchdown efforts down the stretch versus the Bills and the Dolphins, and Henderson was headed into the NFL Playoffs on quite the high.
Still, as we’ve seen with the 23-year-old back over and over, past performance does not necessarily dictate the future. Henderson’s been a complete non-factor in New England’s postseason run, and he now enters the Super Bowl as somewhat of a DFS afterthought.
Is that the way we should be viewing TreVeyon Henderson? Does he have value in DraftKings’ $4.5M Super Bowl LX Millionaire contest? Let’s break down everything you need to know about the Patriots’ backfield heading into Sunday’s festivities.
TreVeyon Henderson Fantasy Outlook
I think the first thing we have to establish is that the AFC Championship Game in Denver was probably an outlier. Famously, Henderson was out-snapped 60-to-4 by Rhamondre Stevenson in New England’s narrow 10-7 victory, but it’s worth remembering the circumstances. Thanks to the Broncos’ swarming defense and a short field created by a bone-headed Jarrett Stidham fumble, the Patriots ran only 26 offensive plays in the first half. In the second half? A blizzard altered the playing surface and the entire complexion of the contest. Henderson’s game-breaking speed was no longer needed. Instead, New England opted for the bruising, between-the-tackles running style of Stevenson, who finished with 25 carries for 71 yards.
It’s not like this was the script in the Patriots’ first two playoff games. While Henderson’s final stat line wasn’t overly impressive in wins over the Chargers or the Texans — being held below 40 scrimmage yards in both — the rookie saw roughly a 40% snap share and averaged 10.5 rushing attempts. He was involved. This was a real running back committee, and I expect New England to get back to sensibility in the Super Bowl.
Again, it’s not like Henderson hasn’t proven his ability across the past five months. In fact, during the regular season, the Ohio State product was one of only seven running backs with at least 150 carries to average over 5.0 yards per attempt, joining a group that includes De’Von Achane, James Cook, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins and Jahmyr Gibbs. Pretty good company. Henderson also produced 0.42 PPR fantasy points per snap, which ranked him just outside the top 10 of the league.
The Bottom Line
Obviously, this is far from an ideal matchup for any running back — especially one that, in the best-case scenario, is still going to be splitting snaps. The Seahawks did not allow a single 100-yard rusher this season, and they’ve also surrendered the fourth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing RBs. That said, I truly believe TreVeyon Henderson’s agility and ability to break long runs outside the numbers is a better approach to beating Seattle on the ground than, say, Rhamondre Stevenson constantly running head-first into the brick wall that is Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed.
While a majority of Henderson’s best games have come with Stevenson sidelined by injury, the former managed 33.1 FPTS in Week 15 and 17.3 FPTS in Week 18 playing alongside the latter. It’s not as if Henderson performing well is some pipe dream that we’ve never seen take place. Despite that, Henderson’s price tag in DFS has fallen off a cliff in the past two weeks. Once equipped with an $8,000 salary in the AFC Championship Game, Henderson is now just $3,800 for the Super Bowl — a full $5,000 cheaper than his backfield teammate.
That’s a huge discount on an asset with a massive fantasy ceiling. I’m buying in low on a bounce-back showing.
