The PGA TOUR is ready to get the WM Phoenix Open underway at TPC Scottsdale, where raucous crowds and a beautiful, fan-friendly finish await players as they look to start strong for this fourth tournament of the season. Let’s take a look at what to expect on Thursday, as I run down a few of my Round 1 best bets for the WM Phoenix Open.
You can build your betting card on DK Sportsbook at any time throughout the tournament with a wide variety of offerings, including everything from single-player props to full-field overall props and everything from one-hole results to where a specific player will place for the entire four-round event. This week, there is even a whole section of Hole 16 Specials to consider if you’re just wanting to focus on “The Coliseum” with a specific pick.
After looking at all the options, here are my three favorite Round 1 best bets this week:
Rasmus Hojgaard under 69.5 (-118)
Hojgaard is in one of the first groups out on Thursday morning with a 9:20 a.m. ET tee time. I outlined why I like Hojgaard’s current form in my Cash game picks for this week, and I think he has a good shot to get out on Monday with at least a -2 on this Par-71.
Rasmus Hogjaard opened last year in his tournament debut with a 68 and followed that with rounds of 67 and 65 before fading with a Final Round 71. He comes in after T44 and T30 finish the last two weeks, finishing -2 or better in each of his last three rounds last week at Torrey Pines.
He’ll be out to set the pace early on Thursday, and I think he can check in under this prop line to start my Round 1 best bets with some early green from the WM Phoenix Open.
Sahith Theegala over Michael Thorbjornsen (-112)
In this head-to-head matchup, I’m taking a resurgent Theegala to finish ahead of Thorbjornsen after the first round. Theegala struggled in 2025 but has started the new year with a T31 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, a T8 at The American Express, and a T7 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. Thorbjornsen didn’t play in Hawaii, missed the cut at The American Express, and finished T18 at the Farmers Insurance Open, meaning Theegala finished ahead of him in that tournament as well.
Theegala finished with a 66 on Sunday, four shots better than Thorbjornsen’s closing effort, and he opened with a 66 in Round 1, while Thorbjornsen ended up with a 68.
Theegala also has a great track record at TPC Scottsdale, with a T3 in his debut in 2022 and a solo fifth-place finish in 2024. It’s been a while since he’s been playing this well, but I’m ready to buy back on the 28-year-old enough to take him in this head-to-head matchup on Thursday.
Hideki Matsuyama top 20 (Including Ties) (-104)
Matsuyama tees off in the afternoon wave, when the wind should be a little less of an issue. Afternoon waves have had slightly lower scores on this course over the last few years, and Hideki brings both great course history and plenty of momentum to his opening round in the featured group alongside Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland.
So far this year, Matsuyama finished T13 in Hawaii and T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He typically starts the year strong after playing in the fall and winter in Japan and Asia. He did seem a little shaky off the tee last week at Torrey Pines, but his approach game is sharp as always, and he ranked 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach and T4 in GIR% on his way to a second straight top-20 to start the season.
Matsuyama has played this event 12 times in his career and made the cut every time, aside from a withdrawal in 2018. He finished in the top five in each of his first four appearances at this track, including winning in a playoff in 2016 and 2017. He’s finished in the top 25 in nine of his 12 appearances here overall and has finished under par in 11 straight rounds over the last three years. Furthermore, he should be able to navigate his way into the top 20 by the end of Round 1, and I love getting this prop at just about even money.
