The Rockets were dealt a tough blow yesterday, losing center Steven Adams for the season due to an ankle injury. On Thursday, Houston (28-17, 4th in West) will attempt to bounce back with a road victory. That means taking care of business against the Hawks (24-25, 9th in East). Atlanta, despite injuries and roster shuffling of its own, still hopes to compete for a postseason spot.
The Rockets are 5.5-point favorites (-105) over the Hawks on DraftKings Sportsbook. Houston is favored at -162 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 223.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Thursday’s Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks matchup.
Rockets vs. Hawks prediction, preview
Despite rostering some terrific playmakers, Houston’s identity is built on defense. The Rockets are holding opponents to just 110.5 points per game, fourth-fewest in the NBA. That’s what makes the absence of Adams so difficult. The veteran center was always willing to do the dirty work, forming a potent double-big lineup with Alperen Sengun. If there’s any solace, third-stringer Clint Capela is a similar type of player. The 12th-year pro will need to provide a similar level of effort when it comes to rebounding and protecting the rim.
Perhaps the loss of Adams pushes the Rockets towards a more up-tempo brand of basketball. After all, they own the NBA’s fifth-highest offensive rating (119.0). Leading the charge is offseason acquisition Kevin Durant. The former MVP has been phenomenal, giving Houston a go-to scorer for tough buckets. Through 43 games, the future Hall-of-Famer is averaging 26.4 points on 51/41/88 shooting splits. Sengun, a fellow All-Star, has impressed as well. The Turkish center has accounted for 21.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists. Oversized point guard Amen Thompson, a true all-around threat, helps form one of the NBA’s most lethal trios.
For the home team, this isn’t an ideal spot. Not only will the Hawks host a title contender, but they’ll be doing so at less than 100%. Zaccharie Risacher (knee) and Kristaps Porzingis (Achilles) and Onyeka Okongwu (face) have all been ruled out. A limited frontcourt makes things difficult against most teams, especially Houston. The Rockets score 53.0 points per game inside the paint, seventh-most in basketball. Giving Durant and Sengun even easier driving lanes could be a recipe for disaster.
If the Hawks are going to earn an upset, this can’t become a grind-it-out affair. Quin Snyder’s crew plays at the NBA’s second-quickest pace on offense (102.4). However, with so much talent on the injured list, there’s even more responsibility than normal on Jalen Johnson. The wing has emerged as an All-Star candidate, posting 22.9 points, 10.5 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game. His seven triple-doubles trail only Nikola Jokic (16) this season. Johnson has been a menace on the glass recently, snagging 14.0 rebounds over his last five appearances. He’ll look to keep that going against a potentially vulnerable Houston interior.
Rockets vs. Hawks pick, best bet
Atlanta is a frustrating team for a number of reasons, playing beneath their talent level. Part of what has held this group back is an inability to defend home court. The Hawks have gone 9-13 when playing at State Farm Arena, a troubling record for any team with postseason aspirations. Both clubs enter this one on the second leg of a back-to-back, so there’s no rest advantage. In addition, neither team is operating at full strength. With respect to Johnson, Houston possesses at least three of the four best players on the court tonight. That alone is enough to back the Rockets as road favorites.
