The stage is set for perhaps the greatest NFL Playoff game of all time on Sunday night. In terms of advanced metric DVOA, this matchup is basically the best contest to take place league-wide over the last 47 years and only the seventh playoff game in which both teams had a DVOA over 30%. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are both awesome, but only one can survive and advance to make the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles is a 2.5-point road underdog with the game total set at 45.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are the best Colby Parkinson prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Rams vs. Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.
Best Colby Parkinson prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Rams turned to their tight ends more than most teams this year, adopting plenty of 13 personnel sets under the watchful eye of Sean McVay. The team ran those formations with three tight ends at the NFL’s sixth-highest rate, ranking third in EPA in such circumstances as well. None of Los Angeles’ tight ends benefitted from that trend more than Colby Parkinson, a sixth-year veteran who posted a career year while catching passes from a likely MVP in Matthew Stafford. Parkinson paced the team’s position group in routes run and caught 43 balls for 408 yards and eight touchdowns, setting new high marks across the board on the back of his football card. He earned a real reputation as an excellent player within his role, only solidifying the trust of his quarterback and coaching staff with a game-winning touchdown grab in the fourth quarter of the Wild Card Round.
Now, he takes on his former team in Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the NFL’s top defenses and almost entirely shut down the run, which often leads opponents to attack via the pass. They allow 221.3 passing yards per game, 13th in the league, but hold opponents to the fifth-lowest completion percentage and second-lowest yards per pass. The volume against them of 27.7 passes per game, 30th in the league, is likely what drives that passing yardage number up a little bit.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Parkinson’s prop bet lines are set at O/U 2.5 catches, 26.5 receiving yards and a longest reception of 13.5 yards. His odds to score an anytime touchdown come in at +310, ninth-shortest in this game.
There is one stat to note heading into this matchup if you plan to bet on Parkinson’s prop markets. Here’s a snippet from my top props overview for Seahawks vs. Rams:
The Seahawks allow the lowest aDOT of any NFL team and force plenty of shorter receptions off crossers and in the flats. They also give up the fourth-most targets (8.44) and receptions (6.17) per game to tight ends along with the sixth-most receiving yards (63.33). Yes, that’s at least partially due to the scheme, but it also means the Rams may rely more on their 13 personnel attack to try and boost the outlook for the run game while taking advantage of what Seattle gives them.
Sure, the defensive scheme the Seahawks run may be what allows opposing tight ends to eat against them, but that’s actually exactly what we want here. Parkinson isn’t exactly a game-breaking talent like a Trey McBride or even a Harold Fannin Jr., but he does have reliable hands and has earned the trust of Stafford over the course of the campaign. He saw at least five targets in six of his eight most recent games and hit seven targets in four of those contests as well. Those are some strong numbers in an elite offense, and given how Seattle takes away the deep pass and tries to force opponents into throwing short of the sticks, Parkinson is the guy to benefit from such schematic choices. As long as nothing crazy happens, he should be positioned nicely to have a very solid outing.
I’m not projecting him to catch 10 balls for 100 yards and a tuddy by any means, but I love getting Parkinson to record 4+ receptions at plus odds on Sunday. He’s been a key part of the Rams’ offense over the season’s second half and came up clutch in the Wild Card, so given how vulnerable this defense is to tight ends, he should see plenty of usage in the NFC Championship Game and go over this prop line.
Best Bet: Colby Parkinson 4+ receptions (+160)
Click the odds of this bet to tail!
