The NFL Postseason has finally reached the AFC and NFC Conference Championships, meaning just two weeks remain of action on the gridiron before the year wraps up. While it does feel like time is running out to enjoy the sport we all love, it also means it’s time to sit back and soak in every last second of the games this weekend. After the first contest of the day, the NFC Championship Game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. EST as the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks battle it out in front of the 12th man.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite at home with -142 odds on the Moneyline. The total sits at 46.5 combined points, the higher of the two games on this slate.
Here are the top player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Rams vs. Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.
Rams vs. Seahawks best prop bets
Colby Parkinson 4+ receptions (+165)
Just to be clear before we get into the props, this might be one of the best NFL games to ever take place. In terms of raw DVOA (an all-encompassing advanced metric in which higher numbers equal more success, and thus better teams), this is essentially the best matchup of the last 47 years. We get elite offenses duking it out against fantastic defenses and a true chess match between coaches to boot, so teams will be looking to find any edge possible.
While the Rams largely abandoned their 13 personnel groupings in the Divisional Round, they still utilized it plenty in the Wild Card and throughout a large portion of the regular season. Straying away from heavy sets felt like more of an aberration last week than anything else, so there’s a good shot they get back to rolling out three tight ends on a regular basis again. Even if they don’t though, Colby Parkinson should still find himself positioned to eat in this matchup. The veteran tight end garnered five or more targets in six of his eight most recent outings (playoffs included) with seven targets in four of those games. He’s also led the position group in routes run this season, so there’s a strong projectable role moving forward.
Here’s why I mentioned looking for any edge possible in the first paragraph of this prop analysis. The Seahawks allow the lowest aDOT of any NFL team and force plenty of shorter receptions off crossers and in the flats. They also give up the fourth-most targets (8.44) and receptions (6.17) per game to tight ends along with the sixth-most receiving yards (63.33). Yes, that’s at least partially due to the scheme, but it also means the Rams may rely more on their 13 personnel attack to try and boost the outlook for the run game while taking advantage of what Seattle gives them. Parkinson is primed to see that sizable target share and haul in at least four balls.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions (-117)
There’s a little bit of risk here since Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold popped up on the injury report with an oblique issue last week and threw just 17 passes in the win over the 49ers. However, I’m willing to write that volume off as an effect of a blowout victory in which Seattle led from the game’s opening play (a kickoff return TD from Rashid Shaheed) than a result of the injury. Against a top-tier offense, the Seahawks should throw the ball plenty on Sunday as they attempt to keep pace with an attack led by the likely MVP, Matthew Stafford.
As such, we’re looking toward none other than Darnold’s top target, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The third-year wideout hauled in 119 passes this season (third-most of any player at the position) on 157 targets (fourth-most). He’s obviously an incredible talent who even the best defenses can’t seem to slow down, catching at least five passes in 15/18 games with over 6.5 catches in 12/18 overall. Seattle may not throw as often in neutral game scripts, but the attack does center around its star receiver whenever the ball does fly. His target share of 36.2% led the entire NFL, so it’s clear that Darnold will send the pigskin his way.
I’d feel good about over 6.5 receptions regardless of game script and matchup, but both factors also fall in JSN’s favor. Per PFF, the wideout ranks second in YPRR against zone coverage, which Los Angeles runs at the seventh-highest rate in the league. He’ll command targets as usual and likely make the most of them against a secondary which does prove vulnerable on occasion.
