The Western Conference once again takes center stage as the NBA’s Rivals Week tips off. Tonight’s two nationally-televised games will both take place in the West, as the San Antonio Spurs travel to face the Houston Rockets at 8 p.m. ET and the Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Lakers at 10 p.m. ET.
The Lakers will carry a mostly healthy squad into the thin air of the Rockies, with only Austin Reaves (calf) out. The Nuggets, meanwhile, have a much longer injury report, centered by Nikola Jokić (knee), Cameron Johnson (knee), Christian Braun (ankle), and Jonas Valančiūnas (calf).
Los Angeles is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-155 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 227.5. Denver is +130 on the Moneyline. I’ve already previewed the matchup and provided my prediction, but here are three player prop bets that I like in addition.
Jamal Murray 27+ Points (-122)
The Nuggets are 7-4 since Jokić got injured in large part because of Murray, who’s seemingly a shoo-in to be named to his first All-Star team when reserves are announced on February 1. The Canadian has put up 28.8 points, 4.4 boards, and 8.5 assists per game on 50-42-91 shooting splits in eight games since Jokić’s injury, scoring at least 27 points six times. Though he’s coming off of just a 16-point effort, it shouldn’t be too much of a concern: he didn’t play badly in the 110-87 blowout defeat against the Charlotte Hornets, but he was pulled after 25 minutes because of the lopsided scoreline. A blowout shouldn’t be the expectation tonight, given that Denver without Jokić and the Lakers without Reaves have played similarly on both sides of the ball.
That is to say that both teams have been bad defensively. For the season, Los Angeles ranks sixth-to-last in defensive rating, and it has actually been even worse — fourth-to-last — since December 14, a span in which Reaves has played just two games because of back-to-back calf injuries. The Lakers have been particularly vulnerable in the restricted area across that span, and Murray is an extremely high-level finisher, albeit on only moderate volume. He has seen success against both Luka Dončić and Marcus Smart — likely to be his two primary assignments tonight — combining for eight-for-16 shooting (six-for-nine from deep) in his matchups against them in 2023-24, the last season in which Smart was active in multiple matchups against Murray.
Deandre Ayton to Record a Double-Double (+146)
DominAyton did just that in Los Angeles’ win over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday, dropping 25 points and adding 13 assists for his 16th double-double of the season. Despite his rim protecting deficiencies — of the 25 primary centers who have played at least 30 games and guarded at least five shots per game within six feet, the 59.7% accuracy that Ayton has allowed ranks 11th-to-last — Ayton has clearly been, along with Smart, among the Lakers’ most successful free agency signings in 2025. Los Angeles has been 2.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than off, and his plus/minus alone has accounted for the team’s margin of victory on eight separate occasions.
Ayton should be in line to post his 17th double-double of the season against a Nuggets team that has struggled mightily on the glass without Jokić and Valančiūnas. Over the last 11 games, Denver ranks dead last in total rebounding percentage and has allowed the third-most rebounds per game. It has also allowed the 10th-most made layups per game on the eighth-highest shooting percentage. If Ayton can rack up double-digit boards while facing off against the likes of Domantas Sabonis, Victor Wembanyama, Joel Embiid, and Mark Williams — as he’s done this season — Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, and DaRon Holmes should be no problem.
Luka Dončić 4+ Three-Pointers Made (-106)
This season, Dončić is shooting just 33.7% from downtown, the third-worst mark of his eight-season career. Regardless of his inefficiency, he’s still launching 10.2 per game, the second-most of his career, quality be damned (his 31.0% expected three-point percentage is the lowest of any qualified shooter, per the NBA’s Inside the Game stats). Recently, though, he’s started to find his shot, draining 38.6% of his triples so far in January and 50% of his threes in his last three games. All in all, he’s had four or more made triples in four of his last five games.
Dončić is a bad matchup against anyone, but he’s even more of a nightmare for the Nuggets, given that they’ve ranked seventh-to-last in defensive rating since Jokić’s injury. Plus, Denver has arguably gotten fortunate not to be even worse defensively: across the last 11 games, the Nuggets have given up the fourth-lowest percentage on threes attempted with the nearest defender at least six feet away, which Dončić — albeit on low volume — has hit at a 46.6% rate this season. Denver has also given up among the most shots with the nearest defender between four and six feet away, and Dončić — whose 29.4% accuracy on such shots is nearly four percentage points worse than his previous career low — is due for some shooting luck normalization.
