Perhaps more than any of the other major sports in the United States, the NBA is defined by rivalries. Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell defined the 1960s, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird the 1980s, and LeBron James and Stephen Curry the 2010s, with several other sets of nemeses making their mark — to varying degrees — on the intervening decades.
The 2020’s have been an era of unprecedented parity and haven’t yet produced a surefire rivalry, but the closest example might well be that between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets after the Nuggets unceremoniously dumped the Lakers out of the postseason in both 2023 and 2024. Between James and Luka Dončić in Los Angeles and Nikola Jokić in Denver, these teams have both star power and recent success to boot. It’s not a surprise, then, that their 10 p.m. ET clash at Ball Arena is the centerpiece of NBA Rivals Week’s opening day.
Jokić will miss tonight’s game as he continues to recover from the hyperextended knee that he suffered on December 29, but the Lakers’ main pain point, Jamal Murray, most likely will. All in all, the Nuggets’ injury list is long: though Aaron Gordon and Murray are set to play, Cameron Johnson (knee), Christian Braun (ankle), and Jonas Valančiūnas (calf) will continue to be absent. Los Angeles’ injury list is significantly shorter, with Austin Reaves (calf) the only rotation player out.
The Lakers are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 227.5. Denver, meanwhile, is +124 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s nationally-televised matchup and offer my prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets preview, prediction
James has put on his cape to start 2026, averaging 26.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game on solid 53-35-90 shooting splits in the first nine games of the calendar year at the age of 41. His efforts haven’t necessarily led to wins — Los Angeles is just 5-5 so far this calendar year, including some bad losses to lottery-bound fodder in the Sacramento Kings and Charlotte Hornets — but the Lakers merely need to stay afloat until Reaves returns. Of course, having a fully healthy Dončić helps, too, and Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Deandre Ayton, and Jaxson Hayes are also back after each suffering some minor nicks.
The Nuggets’ surprising competitiveness — they’re 7-4 since Jokić suffered his injury — can predominantly be attributed to Peyton Watson, who’s averaged 22.5 points, 6.3 boards, 1.1 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game across that span and was recently named Western Conference Player of the Week for the first time in his career. Watson isn’t alone, though: Gordon returned from his hamstring strain to score 20 points thrice in six games, and Murray has averaged 29.9 points per game across seven January appearances as he closes in on his first career All-Star nod. Jokić’s injury could be good for Denver in the long run, as it has allowed some of the Nuggets’ depth pieces to develop.
Lakers at Nuggets pick, best bet
There likely won’t be much defense played tonight. For the season, Denver ranks eighth-to-last in defensive rating and Los Angeles sixth-to-last. Jokić’s injury hasn’t done much to change that: over the last 11 games, the Nuggets have dipped slightly to seventh-to-last, with the Lakers remaining sixth-to-last. Denver has been slightly better on offense, as it has ranked 12th in offensive rating since Jokić’s injury, while Los Angeles has ranked 15th since December 14, a span in which Reaves has played just two games because of back-to-back calf injuries. The Nuggets’ advantage should grow larger as Gordon gets healthier: with him on the floor, their defense is 7.5 points per 100 possessions better.
Under no circumstance can the Lakers let Murray get downhill tonight. He’s averaged nearly 30 points per game without Jokić in part because he’s attempted the 10th-most drives per game across that span, and while those drives haven’t resulted in high volume from the restricted area (he’s just 101st in shots at the rim per game), he’s been an extremely accurate finisher. That could be a massive problem for Los Angeles: while opponents have only gotten downhill at a league-average rate since Reaves’ injury, they’ve hit a league-high 74.9% of such shots. If the Lakers can keep Murray from getting layups and limit Gordon’s back-door cuts — he’s the ninth-most efficient of the 31 players who cut at least twice per game — they could have an advantage inside, given that Denver has also struggled in rim protection and Los Angeles is the league’s most accurate finishing team.
This game will swing on the glass: unsurprisingly, being without their three-time MVP center hasn’t helped the Nuggets corral boards. Since Jokić’s injury, they’ve posted the league’s worst rebounding percentage despite their boards being contested at the second-lowest rate, and the Lakers have been about a league-average rebounding team. Denver also ranks dead last in points in the paint and second-to-last in second chance points across that span while giving up the third-most second-chance points. Los Angeles has out-rebounded its opponents by 2.8 percentage points with Ayton on the floor alongside Dončić and James, among JJ Redick’s most frequent three-man units so far in January. The Lakers have maintained their elite free throw differential, and their turnover issues might be less consequential than usual, given the Nuggets’ struggles in transition.
Denver will need to shoot the lights out to make up for its disadvantages inside, and so far, it has done that, ranking a solid eighth in three-point percentage across the last 11 games. However, there’s a certain element of luck to it: despite producing the 10th-fewest wide-open looks per game, the Nuggets have hit their uncontested threes at the seventh-highest rate, with Murray, Hardaway, and Watson all above 50% and due for regression. Plus, Denver is unlikely to generate more wide-open looks against Los Angeles, which, for all of its defensive flaws, has given up among the fewest uncontested looks since Reaves’ injury. The Lakers don’t generate many wide-open threes, and the Nuggets don’t allow a ton either, but if Dončić’s and James’ recent uptick in accuracy is real, the shooting differential between these teams isn’t massive.
Barring an anomalously hot shooting performance by Murray or Gordon — which, to be fair, would very much be in character — Los Angeles should be able to turn its dominance on the glass into a victory tonight. Denver has only beaten three teams with winning records without Jokić and have otherwise been scraping by lottery-bound teams.
