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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will not have to go through Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson. All eyes are on Josh Allen to breakthrough. While I think Allen is capable of willing his team to victory, the rest of this Buffalo team is not all that good. James Cook has had a tremendous season, but will be on the road against a Jacksonville rush defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL this season.
So will Allen have enough weapons to win the game? Will the shaky Buffalo defense be able to step up? I don’t have the answers there, but I don’t think the Bills are good enough to go on the road an win with margin against a Jaguars squad that’s on an 8-0 SU/ATS run since an early November loss to the Texans. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career, and the Jags are legit on defense. I’m teasing them up to +7.5 and pairing them with the 49ers.
I also like a prop in this game, fading what has been a poor Bills’ run defense. Buffalo ranks just 28th in the NFL at stopping the run, and gave up nearly 150 rushing yards per game on the road. I believe Jacksonville will be able to move the ball on the ground at home in this matchup, and will play the over on Travis Etienne’s rushing prop.
NFL Pick: 6PT Teaser JAX +7.5/SF +11.5 (-135) & Travis Etienne OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
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