NFL Wild Card Weekend gets underway on Saturday afternoon with the first of six games that span through Monday night. Let’s breakdown some bets for the slate.
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
The Panthers crept into the playoffs with a losing 8-9 record, coming off a loss, and with a point differential of negative sixty nine during the regular season. This isn’t a good team, however, Carolina did defeat the Rams just a couple of months ago in this very stadium. That said, I’d be stunned if the Rams lost the game, but I’m not looking to lay double digits on the road in the postseason.
Instead, I’ll turn to a look on a player prop. Despite taking the loss, the Rams shredded the Panthers on the ground in the first meeting, including a 17-72-1 rushing line from Kyren Williams. As the season progressed, the Rams started giving Blake Corum more carries, but I could see the split going back to more of a 70% lead back role for Williams.
Williams’ rushing prop is set at 64.5 rushing yards as I hit publish, which he cleared 13 times during the regular season. I’ll back Williams to clear a modest prop in a good matchup against a Carolina rush defense that ranked near the bottom of the NFL. The Panthers are not in good form at the moment stopping the rush, entering Saturday giving up an average of more than 157 rushing yards per game over the last three games.
NFL Pick: Kyren Williams OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Saturday 8:00pm ET)
The Packers enter the postseason on a four-game losing streak, and while not ideal, you can almost justify it. Green Bay let go of the rope in a tough atmosphere in Denver, but then lost Jordan Love during the loss in Chicago, and fell to the Ravens without Love again. The Pack then packed it up for the regular season finale, and gave virtually no effort in Minnesota.
While Green Bay isn’t working with much momentum, it will have rest and health, which is extremely important this time of year. The Packers essentially beat the Bears twice in the last month — an actual win in Green Bay, and then a miracle win by the Bears in a game that Love got injured and multiple fluke plays swung the game.
I think a healthy Green Bay passing game can make plays downfield against the Chicago secondary, as we saw when Jordan Love threw three touchdowns in the first matchup. I’m going to make Caleb Williams prove it to me on the big stage and back the Packers to win round three of this NFC North showdown.
NFL Pick: Packers ML (-120)
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will not have to go through Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson. All eyes are on Josh Allen to breakthrough. While I think Allen is capable of willing his team to victory, the rest of this Buffalo team is not all that good. James Cook has had a tremendous season, but will be on the road against a Jacksonville rush defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL this season.
So will Allen have enough weapons to win the game? Will the shaky Buffalo defense be able to step up? I don’t have the answers there, but I don’t think the Bills are good enough to go on the road an win with margin against a Jaguars squad that’s on an 8-0 SU/ATS run since an early November loss to the Texans. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career, and the Jags are legit on defense. I’m teasing them up to +7.5 and pairing them with the 49ers.
I also like a prop in this game, fading what has been a poor Bills’ run defense. Buffalo ranks just 28th in the NFL at stopping the run, and gave up nearly 150 rushing yards per game on the road. I believe Jacksonville will be able to move the ball on the ground at home in this matchup, and will play the over on Travis Etienne’s rushing prop.
NFL Pick: 6PT Teaser JAX +7.5/SF +11.5 (-135) & Travis Etienne OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 4:30pm ET)
I’ll round my teaser off here with San Francisco, with seemingly everyone on the Eagles. After Philly opened -3, it’s been all Eagles money coming into the market. I like what Philly has on defense, but the offense has been stuck in mud at times. Now, the Eagles also rested last week, while the 49ers went all-out for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and lost.
The good news is that game was on Saturday, so there’s a bit of extra time to rest. While the 49ers’ defense has been a bit of an issue, I don’t believe the Eagles will make enough explosive plays on offense to break this game open. I lean to the under in the game, but trust the Niners to hang around as a teaser leg.
NFL Pick: 6PT Teaser JAX +7.5/SF +11.5 (-135)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (Sunday 8:00pm ET)
The Chargers will have to travel to the east coast for a night game in which we could see some snow/sleet/rain-type of conditions. That’s not very friendly for a west coast dome team. Plenty will be made of the Patriots schedule, and we’re about to find out a lot about this team. The Chargers will be the best defense that New England has seen this season.
That said, this is still a tough road test for the Chargers. The most difficult road game that Los Angeles played this season was going to Jacksonville, and while Justin Herbert was injured during that game, the Jags were out to a 28-6 lead when he went down. The Chargers’ weakness is on the offensive line, and a key to the game will be if the Patriots will be able to generate a pass rush — which they ranked near the bottom of the league at during the regular season.
Omarion Hampton’s status is in doubt for this game, so if the Chargers are having difficulty running the ball, it might help the Patriots keep the Chargers one dimensional and give a boost to the pass rush. New England has gotten off to tremendous starts this season — 15-1-1 to the first half moneyline and 13-4 to the first half ATS. I’ll back the Pats to continue their strong starts.
NFL Pick: Patriots 1H -2.5 (-115)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday 8:00pm ET)
When the Steelers miraculously earned their spot in the postseason in a dramatic Sunday Night Football game against the Ravens, a lot of bettors lined up to fade them. The Texans opened -2.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook and were quickly bet out to -3.5. Now the spread has settled in at Houston -3, which I feel is a fair number.
My concern with the Texans is how the offense will look on the road against a solid defense. Pittsburgh should have the strongest home field advantage in the Wild Card Round, and the outdoor elements should also play a role against a dome team. What I’m confident in on the Houston side is that nasty defense stepping up and limiting the Steelers on offense.
Pittsburgh is essentially off an emotional playoff victory against Baltimore, but the Monday kickoff gives some extra time to rebound. I think this should be a close game, but one that takes some time for both offenses to find their stride. The Steelers can be a slow starting team, which has also been the case under Mike Tomlin in the playoffs — the Steelers have gone scoreless in the first quarter of their last six playoff games.
If Pittsburgh gets off to another slow start, I don’t see Houston running away with this one early. C.J. Stroud will be in a difficult atmosphere, and the Texans offense has struggled more on the road than at home. Houston averages 14.8 points per game in the first half at home, but that number dips to just 9.5 on the road.
The Steelers average just 10.4 points per game in the first half at home this season, and have scored only 6.3 points in the first half over their last three games. These are also both top-five defenses in terms of points per game allowed in the first half, with Houston giving up 8.1 per game (5.4 on the road) and Pittsburgh allowing 9.0 (5.8 at home). The Texans have been an under team all season at 11-6 to the under, including 6-2 on the road.
I think we see this one get off to a slow start on Monday night.
NFL Pick: 1H UNDER 19.5 (-110)
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