Playoff seeding isn’t very important at this point in the season, less than halfway through the schedule, but given that LeBron James has missed 16 games, Austin Reaves has missed 11 and counting, and Luka Dončić has missed seven, the fact that the Los Angeles Lakers can move into second place in the Western Conference if they beat the San Antonio Spurs tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET is pretty impressive.
It won’t be easy, though; the Spurs will be at home, and they have the healthier roster. Los Angeles might be without James (arthritis/sciatica), who’s questionable, and it will be without Austin Reaves (calf) and Rui Hachimura (calf). Meanwhile, San Antonio has two players on its injury report: Victor Wembanyama (knee) is questionable and Devin Vassell (adductor) is out. Wembanyama played 21 minutes last night and is expected to suit up again on a presumably similar minutes restriction.
The Spurs are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-290 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 235.5. The Lakers are +235 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s nationally-televised showdown and offer my prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs preview, prediction
It’s never pretty, but Los Angeles just keeps finding ways to win. The Lakers suffered four blowout defeats and one blowout win in the last week of 2025, but so far in 2026, they’ve picked up three clutch victories, improving their record in crunch-time games to a league-best 13-0. The opponents were weak — two against the Memphis Grizzlies and one against the New Orleans Pelicans — but wins are wins. James has truly stepped up, averaging 29.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game across Los Angeles’ winning streak, and Jake LaRavia has stepped up as well. Of course, it all comes down to Dončić, but his brilliance should always be expected.
San Antonio, meanwhile, has hit a bit of a rough patch. The Spurs have lost four of their last six games, and they might’ve lost another if not for a flurry of late Julian Champagnie threes in a comeback win over the New York Knicks. The problem hasn’t been Wembanyama, who has averaged 29.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game in just 25.0 minutes per game, but the team’s three talented slashing guards, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper, have all struggled. Mitch Johnson could arguably do a better job managing Wembanyama’s minutes, as he wasn’t on the floor during crunch time in San Antonio’s dispiriting 106-105 loss to Memphis last night despite spearheading a fourth-quarter charge nearly single-handedly.
Lakers at Spurs pick, best bet
Defensively, something is wrong with the Lakers. Across the last 10 games, Los Angeles has had the league’s sixth-worst defense, and without Austin Reaves for all but two games, its offense hasn’t been good enough to cut it (just 15th in the league). Across that span, the Lakers have also allowed the league’s second-worst percentage in the restricted area (an eye-popping 74.5%), as well as one of the worst marks from the non-restricted paint. Los Angeles’ depth continues to be a problem: though Hachimura has not been a good defender this season and the man who’s replaced him while he’s been injured, Jarred Vanderbilt, has been while hitting 42.3% of his triples, its rim protection metrics have been just as awful even with Hachimura off the floor.
That could be a problem against the Spurs, who love to put pressure on the rim. They rank eighth in shot attempts at the rim — a position they maintained during the earlier six-game period in which Wembanyama came off the bench — and 10th in drives per game, and three rotation players rank in the league’s top 50 in interior on-ball gravity. One of the keys for the Lakers will be keeping Wembanyama away from the paint, given that he’s shot 74.2% in the restricted area this season. Los Angeles did an excellent job of that in the teams’ first matchup, as nine of his 14 shot attempts came at least eight feet away from the basket, but his primary defender in that game, Hachimura, is out. That also won’t matter if Wembanyama makes 58.3% of his midrange jumpers, as he’s done since returning from his injury.
The Lakers absolutely have to take advantage of the moments when Wembanyama is off the court. During the 12 games that Wembanyama missed due to his calf strain, San Antonio allowed the 12th-most shots in the restricted area, which dropped to the fourth-fewest in his earlier six-game stint off the bench. As good as Luke Kornet is, he’s not a game-wrecking deterrent like the young Frenchman, and Los Angeles has been by far the league’s best finishing team, even after Reaves’ injury. The Lakers should also be able to compete well on the boards without Wembanyama; with him on the floor, the Spurs have had the equivalent of the league’s second-highest rebounding percentage, but without him, it’s dropped to a good-but-not-great 50.8%. Competing with San Antonio on the boards will be critical for Los Angeles; while both teams turn it over a lot, the younger and more athletic Spurs have had the far better transition defense.
The Lakers could make things challenging for San Antonio’s shooters, who have struggled recently. Across its last 10 games, Los Angeles has conceded the fifth-fewest wide-open three-point attempts per game, and Keldon Johnson and Wembanayama are the only healthy Spurs who have made a higher percentage of their threes than would be expected based on shot quality. Castle, in particular, has been poor, making only 27.4% of his triples despite taking the 29th-easiest shots in the league. Defensively, San Antonio gives up plenty of open triples because opponents are scared to drive against Wembanyama, and all in all, Los Angeles has shot the ball reasonably well, with Dončić converting at a rate 0.9 percentage points higher than expected despite shooting the lowest-quality threes in the league. Two Lakers even rank ahead of Dončić in that stat, though both (Hachimura and Reaves) are out.
All in all, Los Angeles’ shooting advantage should keep the game close, especially if it can continue to force Castle into bad shots. In close games, the Lakers tend to win. However, while Los Angeles ranks first in clutch net rating by a wide margin this season, the Spurs aren’t too far behind. San Antonio’s interior edge with Wembanyama on the floor is large enough that I won’t be willing to pick the Lakers, but it is worth taking them to lose by single digits for the first time this season.
