The semifinals of the College Football Playoff kick off on Thursday night and continue into Friday. These are my top targets and values for the featured semifinals contest.
DraftKings has a CFB $80K Playoff Palooza contest, with $20,000 going to first place. You can enter the contest for just $20.
Quarterback
Stud
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss vs. Miami, $7,600
Trinidad Chambliss had a truly remarkable performance against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Chambliss was constantly on the run, evading rushers and delivering throws on the move. He made every big play that Ole Miss needed to mount its comeback and advance to the semifinals. He ended the game with a season-high 362 passing yards. It will be another tough test for Chambliss against an elite Miami defensive line, which has been dominant so far in the CFP. However, Chambliss has the athleticism to evade those pass rushers and get the ball downfield, just like he did against Georgia. The Ole Miss offense has not missed a beat without Lane Kiffin, and Chambliss should keep it rolling in the semifinals against Miami.
Value
Carson Beck, Miami vs. Ole Miss, $7,100
With only a two-game slate, there isn’t too much value on the board. However, Beck is the cheapest starting quarterback available, and I’m not sure he should be. Beck is very experienced and has played in a lot of big games at Georgia and now at Miami. He is capable of putting up huge numbers and making spectacular throws, but that is not what Miami has needed him to do so far in the CFP.
Miami faced a great Texas A&M team on the road in terrible weather, then squared-off with arguably the best defense in the nation in Ohio State. Miami played very conservatively on offense in those games, relying on its defense to win it. This Ole Miss defense is significantly worse than Ohio State’s. Plus, the Hurricanes will likely need to score more to keep up with an explosive Ole Miss offense. That should lead to Beck being more aggressive through the air and putting up much bigger numbers than he did in the first two rounds.
Running Back
Stud
Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss vs. Miami, $7,200
Kewan Lacy is one of the best running backs in the country. He ranks third in the nation in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns this season. He had a phenomenal game in the semifinals against Georgia, rushing for 98 yards and two touchdowns, plus catching a couple of balls out of the backfield. Ole Miss should feed its star running back in this game against a tough Miami defense. The Hurricanes have two of the best edge rushers in the nation. To keep those guys honest and open up the passing game, they will need Lacy to break a few long runs. Lacy has performed consistently, failing to score a touchdown only once all season — and that was in a game where he still rushed for 142 yards. Lacy should deliver for the Rebels once again, even against this great Miami defense.
Value
Dierre Hill Jr., Oregon vs. Indiana, $4,300
Oregon is going to be without Jordan Davison (clavicle) for this game. Noah Whittington ($6,000) is the team’s primary back, but Whittington and Davison both played a major role in the offense. Most importantly, Davison was used as the primary goal line back, leading the team with 15 rushing touchdowns on the year. That opens up a big role for freshman tailback Dierre Hill Jr.
As the third-string back, Hill has gotten a majority of his action in games where Oregon is already holding a big lead. However, Hill has proven to bring an explosive running ability that neither Whittington nor Davison possess. Hill is averaging 8.1 yards per carry on the season. He proved what he can do in the first-round of the CFP against JMU, breaking a 56-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. Hill should see a much bigger workload with Davison out, and he is capable of making a game-changing play any time he touches the ball.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Elijah Sarratt, Indiana vs. Oregon, $6,000
Elijah Sarratt has been the ideal weapon for Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza ($8,000) all season. Sarratt is a veteran receiver who has been with Curt Cignetti since the days at James Madison. He led the Hoosiers in receiving last season and has been a part of one of the best pass-catching duos in college football this season, alongside Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,500). Sarratt missed a couple of games this season, but still ranks second in the nation with 13 receiving touchdowns.
Sarratt has now gone eight straight games with at least one touchdown, dating back to Week 4 of the regular season. In his prior matchup against Oregon, Sarratt also had one of his best games of the season. He caught eight passes for 121 yards and a touchdown against the Ducks in Eugene. He should have another great game and keep his incredible touchdown streak rolling.
Value
Malik Benson, Oregon vs. Indiana, $4,800
Malik Benson is another wide receiver to watch in this game. The Florida State transfer has become a great weapon for Dante Moore ($7,400) as the season has gone on. Benson is not the most talented pass-catcher in this Oregon offense — which contains Dakorien Moore ($4,300) and Kenyon Sadiq ($5,200) — however, he has done the most important thing a player can do: Stay on the field. Oregon has been riddled with injuries to its pass-catchers all year, but Benson has played all 14 games for the Ducks.
Consequently, he leads the team in receiving yards, with over 150 yards more than the next best receiver. Benson has at least 50 receiving yards in each of his past five games, including two games with over 100 yards. Benson also has three touchdowns over that five-game stretch. He scored a touchdown in the Ducks’ regular-season matchup against Indiana and should be one of Dante Moore’s go-to guys in this game, as well.
Flex/Superflex
You can use any of the other names I listed in the above categories for the flex or superflex positions. However, here are a few more names, just in case.
Stud
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana vs. Oregon, $8,000
It’s hard to build a lineup for the College Football Playoff semifinals and not include the Heisman Trophy winner. Mendoza has been sensational all season and seems to only be getting better. Mendoza leads the country in passing touchdowns and is coming off a three-touchdown performance against Alabama in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, he is facing an Oregon defense that gave him some trouble in the regular-season matchup. Despite Indiana winning the game, Mendoza nearly cost his team with a bad pick-six in the fourth quarter. He will want to redeem himself with a masterful performance in this semifinal game. Mendoza has not disappointed all season, and it’s hard to imagine him letting up now.
Value
Harrison Wallace III, WR, Ole Miss vs. Miami, $5,100
Harrison Wallace III is coming off an incredible game against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Wallace had nine catches for 156 yards against the Bulldogs, both representing season-highs. He also added a touchdown to that incredible stat line. Wallace leads Ole Miss in receptions and receiving yards this season. The Penn State transfer has developed a great relationship with Trinidad Chambliss. Against this dangerous Miami defense, Chambliss should look to his top receiver to make plays for him. Wallace has incredible hands, and Chambliss trusts him in single coverage against anybody. Ole Miss needs a big game from Wallace to beat Miami, and there is no reason to doubt Wallace will supply one after that performance against Georgia.
