Happy holidays! As a reward for landing on the nice list, we get to enjoy NFL football all day long on Thursday’s Christmas Day slate. At 1 p.m. EST, the Dallas Cowboys hit the road for a date against the Washington Commanders. Both sides are eliminated from postseason contention, but there’s still a division rivalry between the two that could make this game very interesting. One player in particular to watch? Wideout George Pickens, who posted 82 yards on four catches the first time these squads matched up.
Here are the best George Pickens prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Cowboys vs. Commanders on Christmas Day in Week 17.
Best George Pickens prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s been a phenomenal season for Cowboys’ offense. The unit averages a league-leading 274.3 passing yards per game behind excellent play from quarterback Dak Prescott, who’s helped fuel a leap to stardom for one of his top weapons, George Pickens. The wideout showed flashes of an elite talent during his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last three seasons but now looks the part of a true alpha receiver in his first campaign with Dallas — his 1,342 receiving yards rank him third among all NFL wideouts, while his 88 receptions are sixth-most and his nine receiving touchdowns fall fifth at the position. Pickens quickly became a massive part of this offense from the jump and has largely improved as the season progressed. With his impressive numbers, a hefty contract in free agency may loom.
This week provides a chance to pad those stats further. As mentioned in an accompanying Dak Prescott prop bets article:
The matchup on Christmas Day looks like a real gift for the Cowboys. This is a road game for Dallas, but the Commanders allow 26.9 points (27th) and 382.7 yards per game (31st) along with the third-highest opponent red-zone scoring percentage and third-most touchdowns per game with 3.1. The secondary appears particularly weak, allowing 241.7 passing yards per game (26th) as well as 8.3 yards per pass (dead last) and a 66.95% completion percentage (25th). In terms of defensive EPA/pass, Washington sits tied for last with only one other team — these same Dallas Cowboys.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Pickens’ prop bet lines are set at O/U 5.5 receptions and 79.5 receiving yards with a longest catch of 26.5 yards. His odds to score an anytime touchdown are listed at +130.
The matchup does appear quite easy for Pickens against PFF’s 30th-ranked secondary, of which none of the three primary projected defensive back matchups come in higher than 61st in coverage grade. Against such a soft defense, the Cowboys’ receiving weapons should eat well in this contest. The biggest concern, though, is simply the passing volume. While Prescott has more pass attempts than any other quarterback this season, this Commanders defense won’t put up much resistance and the team’s offense could come out entirely flat with career backup Josh Johnson — QB3 on the Washington depth chart — under center. That could spell a game which gets out of hand quickly if the Cowboys score a couple of times early, leading to lower passing volume particularly in the second half.
If that’s the case, there’s a little bit of risk involved in taking the overs on Pickens’ yardage and even receptions prop bets. However, the two plays I do like in this spot are a longest reception over 26.5 yards as well as an anytime touchdown. The star wideout has recorded a catch over that yardage line in nine of his appearances this season while working as one of the NFL’s premier deep-ball threats. Prescott brings a cannon of an arm and isn’t afraid to sling the rock, tallying the second-most passes of 20+ air yards among all quarterbacks with 61 on the season. Pickens’ 34 explosive plays of 20+ yards are also third-most of any wideout, so there’s a real case for taking the over on his longest reception prop.
The anytime touchdown bet also looks quite good as well, though. Pickens’ nine touchdowns have come in a variety of ways between deep balls and short-yardage situations, and his 21 red-zone targets rank third among all players at his position as well. You can’t ask for much better than plus odds given the talent, so this Pickens prop is worth a sprinkle as well.
Best Bet: George Pickens longest reception over 26.5 yards (-115)
Slight Lean: George Pickens anytime TD scorer (+130)
Click the odds of either bet to tail!
