Happy holidays! As a reward for landing on the nice list, we get to enjoy NFL football all day long on Thursday’s Christmas Day slate. The schedule kicks off as Dak Prescott leads the Dallas Cowboys on the road for a matchup against the NFC East rival Washington Commanders. The quarterback’s played at an elite level this season, but will his excellent run continue even with the postseason out of reach for his team?
Here are the best Dak Prescott prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Cowboys vs. Commanders on Christmas Day in Week 17.
Best Dak Prescott prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Cowboys are no longer in the running to make the NFL Playoffs, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re not playing to win. To end year one under head coach Brian Schottenheimer, continuing to develop a positive team culture surely remains a point of emphasis. Dak Prescott’s performance is far from the reason this team’s season will end prematurely. The veteran quarterback ranks second in the NFL with 4,175 passing yards and his 28 passing touchdowns are good for third in the league as well. To top that off, his 86.5 PFF passing grade places him fourth among all players at the position and he’s notched 30 big-time throws, second-most of any player. It’s unfortunate the defense has let Prescott and the rest of this excellent offense down, but that’s just football for you.
The matchup on Christmas Day looks like a real gift for the Cowboys. This is a road game for Dallas, but the Commanders allow 26.9 points (27th) and 382.7 yards per game (31st) along with the third-highest opponent red-zone scoring percentage and third-most touchdowns per game with 3.1. The secondary appears particularly weak, allowing 241.7 passing yards per game (26th) as well as 8.3 yards per pass (dead last) and a 66.95% completion percentage (25th). In terms of defensive EPA/pass, Washington sits tied for last with only one other team — these same Dallas Cowboys.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Prescott’s prop bet lines are set at O/U 34.5 pass attempts, 23.5 completions, 272.5 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns. His longest pass line sits at 37.5 yards, while his odds to score an anytime touchdown are listed at +390.
While I’m quite bullish on the quarterback’s ability to carve up the Commanders’ defense like a turkey at Christmas dinner, I’m actually a bit wary about taking the over on his passing lines. Prescott’s yardage prop is set at its highest mark of the entire season, and he’s only gone over it six times overall. This is a vulnerable secondary and the veteran loves to uncork the deep ball, so there’s still a decent chance he does get over 272.5 yards. However, I’d prefer to fade the passing volume instead since Dallas should lead comfortably throughout this game against a struggling defense and an offense led by third-string quarterback Josh Johnson — the game script could get ugly in a hurry and lead to a run-heavy approach for the Cowboys.
With that in mind, it simply makes much more sense to target under 34.5 pass attempts for Prescott. Dallas averages 28.5 points and 393.1 yards per game, both top-five numbers in the NFL. Such a high-powered offense could quickly overwhelm their opponents, potentially on relatively few plays since Washington gives up plenty of chunk gains. If the Cowboys jump out to an early lead, Prescott may not need to throw very much for the remainder of the day and go under this attempts line as a result. Is the value flashy? No, but it feels like a very solid pick in what could quickly become a blowout.
Best Bet: Dak Prescott under 34.5 pass attempts (-123)
Click the odds of this bet to tail!
