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NFL Week 15 Start or Sit: Kenneth Gainwell or Jaylen Warren?

NFL Week 15 Start or Sit: Kenneth Gainwell or Jaylen Warren?

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By: Garion Thorne

This finally felt like Jaylen Warren’s year, didn’t it? Stuck in a timeshare with Najee Harris for the first three seasons of his career, this was going to be a breakout campaign for the 27-year-old running back, especially once it became clear that third-round pick Kaleb Johnson was not going to have a significant role on this Steelers squad. All Warren would have to do is outplay journeyman Kenneth Gainwell to secure that all-important “bell cow” position. Easy, right? Well…

Gainwell’s taken advantage of every opportunity so far in 2025, and the Memphis product has only seen his involvement in Pittsburgh’s offense grow and grow with each passing week. Heck, not only is Gainwell currently averaging more yards per rushing attempt than his teammate (4.6), but he’s tied for the team-lead in touchdowns (6) and he trails DK Metcalf by only two receptions for the team-lead in that category (50).

Entering Monday Night Football in Week 15 against the Dolphins, we have a full-blown committee on our hands. So, is Jaylen Warren or Kenneth Gainwell the more valuable fantasy asset this evening? Let’s dive in and figure it out.

Jaylen Warren Fantasy Outlook

If we’re being completely honest, outside of a 127-yard rushing performance on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 against the lowly Bengals, Warren has been a touchdown-dependent RB3 for a majority of the season. The former undrafted free agent has registered 70 rushing yards or fewer in every other game he’s appeared in 2025, while never-once seeing 20 carries. Warren also isn’t as involved in the passing attack as Gainwell, which has translated to the veteran scoring 14 PPR points or fewer in nine of his 12 games played.

To be clear, Warren’s general underwhelming nature as a fantasy asset isn’t entirely his own fault. It certainly doesn’t help matters that he plays for the Steelers. Though Pittsburgh ranks in the middle of the pack in points per contest (23.7), the team sits dead-last in the NFL in offensive snaps per game (55.2) — a trend that has only gotten worse as the Steelers have run 43 and 52 offensive plays in their last two matchups, respectively. It’s one thing to be in a running back committee. It’s another to split snaps on a team that really doesn’t have that many snaps to go around. That’s how you get a stat line like Warren saw last week against the Ravens: Eight carries for 13 yards. Woof.

Kenneth Gainwell Fantasy Outlook

To be clear, it’s not like Gainwell had all that impressive a yardage day against Baltimore, either, running for 15 yards on four attempts. He also only garnered 27 yards through the air as a receiver; however, that was on six receptions and 20.6% target share that was two-times higher than any Pittsburgh skill-position player not named DK Metcalf. To me, that’s what makes Gainwell the more appealing Steelers’ RB moving forward. Simply put, it’s best to almost think about Gainwell as a wide receiver who will get some additional work in the running game. Like a poor man’s Deebo Samuel.

From Week 11 to Week 14, Gainwell’s 167 receiving yards ranked second among all running backs, while his 22 targets and 21 catches were good for third-most at his position, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs and Ashton Jeanty — despite not seeing the field nearly as often as those two gentlemen. Gainwell’s shown the ability to be an effective runner, too, finishing with at least 90 rushing yards in both games this season where he’s seen double-digit carries (Week 4 and Week 12). In last Sunday’s narrow victory over the Ravens, Gainwell saw 25 snaps to Warren’s 26. The duo have essentially been operating in a 50/50 split across the team’s past four contests, and it’s a span of time where Gainwell is averaging 1.39 PPR fantasy points per touch to Warren’s 0.81. To be blunt, Gainwell’s just been the more productive option as of late.

The Bottom Line

Running back committees aren’t usually this simple to navigate — and it would be even simpler if Warren is eventually unable to play through his new questionable tag — yet it really does seem that Jaylen Warren is the slightly more appealing option in standard formats, while Kenneth Gainwell is your man in a PPR. Specific to Week 15’s matchup with the Dolphins, while Miami is allowing the sixth-most opponent rushing yards per game for the season as a whole (131.9), it’s a unit that has certainly improved since September and October, so I wouldn’t suddenly expect a massive rushing performance from either Steelers RB, leaving both as RB3/FLEX plays in season long.

In DFS contests like DraftKings’ $1.2M Monday Night Showdown, my preference for Gainwell would be quite strong. Not only does Gainwell get the boost of a full-point PPR format, but he’s also $2,000 cheaper than his teammate, despite how similar the duo’s roles have been in recent weeks. Gainwell could even make sense as a Captain, particularly if your build favors a positive script for the Dolphins, as Gainwell would likely see a majority of the work in the second-half as the pass-catching running back option with the Steelers playing from behind.

Garion is a Toronto-based writer who has been playing fantasy sports since elementary school. With a particular affinity for advanced statistics and sabermetrics, he’s been covering DFS Baseball, Football and Basketball for DraftKings dating back to 2018. Prior to that, Garion’s work could be found at FNTSY, SportsGrid, HoopsHype, The New York Daily News and Sportsnet.ca. Still, he is a Dolphins fan, so his decision-making can be questioned from time-to-time.
Disclaimer

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.