After a Week 14 defeat against the Seattle Seahawks, the Atlanta Falcons’ horror season continued, as they were officially eliminated from playoff contention and extended the second-longest active playoff drought in the NFL. Now, all the Falcons can do for the rest of the season is play spoiler for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they seek their fifth consecutive division title, though the Carolina Panthers (who have the third-longest active playoff drought) are tied with Tampa Bay at 7-6. An Atlanta win over the Buccaneers tonight on Thursday Night Football, combined with an expected Carolina victory over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, would put the Panthers in the division lead with both games between Carolina and Tampa Bay yet to be played.
The issue is that this is an extremely depleted Falcons side without starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and top wide receiver Drake London, with tight end Kyle Pitts questionable. Bijan Robinson will be the focus of Atlanta’s offense, just as he’s been all season, but Robinson alone won’t be enough for the Falcons to pull off the upset. Instead, they’ll need more from WR2 Darnell Mooney, who’s had only six catches, 105 yards, and a score (22.5 FPTS) total in the three games since London suffered his latest injury. Pitts and even practice squad call-up Dylan Drummond received more targets than Mooney in the loss to Seattle.
There’s not much reason to have faith in that Mooney will turn it around. His 40.7% catch rate is the third-worst among 193 qualified receivers this season, and while that’s due in part to Penix’s mediocre quarterback play, Kirk Cousins isn’t much better. He hasn’t done anything to make himself an appealing target, generating just an average amount of separation and losing yards after the catch relative to expectations. The 28-year-old has also dropped 9.3% of his targets (the 18th-highest rate in football) and hasn’t broken a single tackle as a ball-carrier. Plus, his average target comes 14.8 yards down the field, and Cousins has been among the league’s worst quarterbacks on throws made between 10 and 19 yards downfield.
Plus, after having one of the league’s worst secondaries last season, the Buccaneers have been solid in the back in 2025, allowing merely the 15th-most FPTS to opposing wideouts and posting the 17th-best coverage grades at Pro Football Focus. With London out, Mooney is likely to get plenty of reps against Jamel Dean, who has been PFF’s fourth-best coverage corner this season. Dean has allowed just a 33.5 passer rating in coverage, conceding no touchdowns and intercepting three passes. Tampa Bay’s other outside corner, Zyon McCollum, is no slouch either.
Start or Sit: Sit Darnell Mooney.
