With five games left in the 2025 NFL season and Joe Burrow back on the field, the Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff chase is still on. After beating the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving, Cincinnati is 4-8 but trails both Baltimore and the Pittsburgh Steelers by just two games, and it still has a game remaining against the Ravens. After a slow start to the season, Chase Brown has once again emerged as one of the league’s better running backs, and with an elite wide receiver trio in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Andrei Iosivas, the Bengals should feel good about their chances of claiming the wide-open division.
Still, it’s worth noting that two of Brown’s best fantasy performances came in Weeks 11 and 12, when backup running back Samaje Perine was sidelined with a high-ankle sprain. He received 3.5 fewer carries than his average in those two weeks during the Thanksgiving clash, but he was still productive, turning those 15 carries into 78 yards and adding another seven catches for 35 yards. Perine took 14 carries in his return from the ankle sprain and gained 39 yards, though seven of those carries came in the fourth quarter with the score more or less secure. One of those carries resulted in a fumble.
Despite averaging more yards per carry and having a higher rushing success rate than Brown, Perine is no threat to usurp Brown’s touches any time soon. He’s never been anything more than a backup, and in fact, he had more receiving yards than rushing yards in each of the prior two full seasons. By Pro Football Focus’ grades, Brown has been the 30th-best of 61 qualified running backs and Perine merely the 50th-best, but in a smaller sample size, Brown’s average offensive grade has been more than 13 points higher over his last six games than his first seven. Perine has improved less while starting from a similar baseline across the same span. Unless the game gets to garbage time, there’s no logical reason to turn to Perine over Brown, especially since the entire offense should be well-rested and less in need of rotations.
I’d be willing to trust Brown against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, given that the Bills have conceded the fourth-most FPTS per game to opposing running backs. Buffalo has given up the fourth-most yards, most touchdowns, and third-most yards per attempt, which should allow Brown to have an efficient performance and, potentially, find the end zone for just the third time all season. It ranks second-to-last by expected points added and fourth-to-last by PFF’s run defense grades. Plus, the Bills record both pressures and hurries relatively frequently, which could incentivize Burrow to dump it off instead of waiting for Chase’s and Higgins’ route trees to develop.
