Thanksgiving Thursday brings more than just turkey and dressing — three quality NFL matchups take place across the day. Fight off the urge to take your afternoon nap because the most exciting showdown of the schedule starts at 4:30 p.m. as Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Both sides are looking to keep their postseason hopes alive, so the stakes are quite high for this one. Who will rise to the occasion?
Here are the best Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Chiefs vs. Cowboys on Thanksgiving Thursday to kick off Week 13.
Best Patrick Mahomes prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Chiefs’ offense sputtered over the last two seasons as game-manager allegations swirled around Patrick Mahomes. However, he’s proven the narrative entirely wrong this year with a Death Star worth of weapons in his corps of pass catchers. With Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown and even Tyquan Thornton lining up across the formation, Kansas City sees plenty of speed and zone-busters in its arsenal. Getting open against man coverage may not be as easy a task, but even still, this offense sits second in passing yards per game (257.7), 13th in yards per pass (7.3) and third in pass attempts per contest as well (37.0). There’s plenty of upside for Mahomes’ prop bets to begin with while operating in Andy Reid’s attack, but this matchup provides even more reason to consider the superstar quarterback’s lines.
The Cowboys’ defense has shown some signs of improvement over the two games since the bye week, but the overall numbers are still among the NFL’s most paltry. Dallas allows the second-most points per game (28.5), as well as the third-most passing yards per contest (252.3) and yards per pass (7.8). While DaRon Bland is one of the league’s better cornerback, Trevon Diggs is a vulnerable pairing alongside him and the safety group doesn’t strike much fear into opponents. With a defense that gives up massive performances and an offense that pushes the pace and throws the ball a ton while racking up plenty of points and yardage, there’s shootout potential for this contest with a total of 52.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
So, what’s the top Mahomes prop bet for this game? As I wrote earlier this week in a piece outlining the top player props for Chiefs vs. Cowboys, a longest completion over 37.5 yards looks like a quality pick here:
The Chiefs’ 38 passes of 20+ yards rank seventh among all teams on offense, while the Cowboys’ defense has allowed 34 passes of 20+ yards… Mahomes has a longest reception over 37.5 yards in seven of his 11 games on the season, and he came close with a longest pass of 37 yards in one additional appearance.
With Dallas’ back half allowing some very long passes and the Chiefs deploying receivers with plenty of after-the-catch juice, I love Mahomes’ chances of adding another massive play to his long list of explosive passes. Over the course of this season’s sample, he’s largely played very impressive football and showed all the signs of his former MVP-caliber self, and the soft matchup on Thursday sets him up for success once more.
Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes longest completion over 37.5 yards (-110)
Click the odds of this bet to tail!
