Thanksgiving Day games always bring some extra attention and we start off the day with a great appetizer this year as the Green Bay Packers visit the Detroit Lions. Both teams have shown lots of potential this year, but they have also slipped up a few times. Neither one has the top spot in the NFC North since the Bears are 8-3, the Packers are 7-3-1, and the Lions are 7-4. This game will have huge playoff implications for both teams, since whoever wins will become a near lock for the postseason and could take the division lead if the Bears fall to the Eagles. The losing team would be outside the playoff picture with lots of work to do the rest of the way.
It’s a rematch of the Week 1 matchup between these teams when the Packers thumped the Lions at Lambeau Field, winning 27-13 and looking like a true Super Bowl contender after adding Micah Parsons shortly before the season began. The road hasn’t been smooth for Green Bay since then, though, with weird losses to the Browns and Panthers blemishing its record. It lost a tough game to the Eagles in Week 10, but bounced back with a Week 11 win over the Giants and a Week 12 domination of the Vikings.
The Lions saw just how tough the Giants can be last week, as New York forced them to overtime at home, even though Jahmyr Gibbs called ballgame with a walk-off overtime winner. At home, the Lions’ offense has been very strong, but they are only 3-3 over their last six games and haven’t been as dominant as they were last season.
Both teams have shown the potential to be good enough to be true Super Bowl contenders, but they have been far from invincible, setting up a matchup that has a wide variety of outcomes. It should be a spicy way to start the day and get everyone ready for all the Thanksgiving Day feasting throughout the rest of the day.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is a slight 2.5-point home favorite, with the point total set at 48.5. The Packers are +120 on the moneyline, while the Lions check in at -142.
Let’s get ready for a huge feast of football on Thanksgiving, and the opening course should be a great start to the day.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $300K Turkey Day Showdown [$100K to 1st] (GB at DET)
Captain’s Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($16,200 CP): St. Brown is a great place to start your Thursday lineups since he brings a great combination of a high ceiling and a high floor. The Lions’ top receiver is always a target magnet and can really rack up points in a hurry, especially when playing at home.
He is averaging 6.8 catches on 9.7 targets per game through 11 games this season and producing 20.7 fantasy points per game. In a Captain’s Pick slot, that’s an average of over 30 fantasy points per contest.
Last week, St. Brown was even better with 32.9 fantasy points by hauling in nine catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. At home this season, he has produced an average of 103.4 yards per game with seven touchdowns in only five home games.
With Sam LaPorta (back) on IR and Jameson Williams booming and busting on the other side, St. Brown should continue to get tons of targets and produce plenty of points. He’s expensive, but his upside is likely to be worth it in this contest.
Jordan Love ($14,400 CP): If you are looking for a contrarian play at Captain’s Pick, Jordan Love is an interesting option to consider. He comes pretty affordably and won’t get much attention after producing 10 fantasy points or fewer in three of his last four matchups.
However, he has also flashed a high ceiling in the last few weeks, racking up 31.3 fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 8 and 30.3 fantasy points against the Cowboys in Week 4, both road games where the Packers had to put up lots of points, similarly to this week.
Love also has a great history on Thanksgiving, winning both his Thanksgiving games with a combined 542 passing yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. Love has 15 touchdowns on the season and just three picks. The Lions are a top-10 matchup for QBs this season, and Love has the potential to go off, even though he doesn’t have as high a floor as St. Brown.
FLEX Plays
Christian Watson ($7,400): Watson has returned from his knee injury from last season and re-established himself as one of the top receivers for the Packers, especially with Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder) still working his way back from IR. Watson has at least four targets in every one of his five games since his return and has at least four receptions in three of those outings. He had a pair of touchdowns and over 20 fantasy points against the Giants in Week 11, and he set a season-high with five catches in Week 12 on his way to 9.9 fantasy points against the Vikings.
Jake Bates ($5,000): Bates has been very reliable and productive for the Lions, and he is a good value at $5,000 for this contest, especially since he’s kicking indoors. He has at least seven fantasy points in five of his last six games, including 13 points in Week 10 and 12 points in Week 12. He’s averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game and 10.0 fantasy points per game at home. He’s made 15-of-19 field-goal attempts and 37-of-39 extra-point attempts.
Ross Dwelley ($200): Sam LaPorta is out for the season, and Brock Wright (neck) has filled in, catching five of his 11 targets for 37 yards over the last two weeks. Wright has not been able to practice this week, though, which could set up Dwelley in a starting role at this extremely minimal salary. Even if he only has one catch, he would be an amazing per-dollar value, and using him in a FLEX role gives you lots to spend across the rest of your roster.
Fades
Josh Jacobs ($9,800): The Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and Jacobs will just be returning from a knee injury that cost him last week against the Vikings. Emanuel Wilson ($8,800) was very productive while starting in Jacobs’ place last week, racking up 29.5 fantasy points against Minnesota. He could stay involved in a timeshare with Jacobs this week, and the presence of the other back and the tough matchup is enough for me to take a pass on the Packers’ running game and target Love and Watson instead.
THE OUTCOME
The range of outcomes for this matchup is vast. Both teams have looked really good and really bad in different matchups this season, and both have played high-scoring and low-scoring matchups. I expect this game lands somewhere in the middle, and since the Lions are at home, I’ll take them to pull out a dramatic late win behind another monster game from St. Brown.
Final Score: Packers 24, Lions 27
