San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls prediction, pick on Monday 11/10/25

Entering the NBA season, few would have expected the San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls to both be in playoff positioning after the first three weeks, but if the season ended today, each team would host its first-round series.

The Spurs’ success is less of a surprise — after all, they have a likely Defensive Player of the Year and MVP candidate in Victor Wembanyama, as well as reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle — but the Bulls’ 6-3 record has turned heads. Chicago will have a chance to make another statement tonight when it hosts San Antonio for an 8 p.m. ET showdown.

The Spurs are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-180 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 237.5. The Bulls have +150 odds of pulling off the upset. Below, I’ll break down this battle of early surprises and offer my prediction.

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls preview, prediction

Chicago is in need of a bounce-back, having lost each of its last two games, but both of its losses came on the road against difficult divisional opponents in the Milwaukee Bucks and the Cleveland Cavaliers. It’ll have the opportunity to improve to 5-0 at home before embarking on a four-game road trip that begins on Wednesday. The Bulls are led by Josh Giddey, who’s averaged 21.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game and draining 38.5% of his three-point shots, but Nikola Vučević, Kevin Huerter, and Matas Buzelis have all been quietly spectacular as well. It’s easy to forget that Coby White, who averaged 26.0 points per game after the start of March last season, hasn’t suited up at all.

San Antonio’s momentum points in the opposite direction, as it has won back-to-back home games over the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans, and it’ll be back home for a five-game stand after tonight’s contest. The Spurs welcomed back All-Star point guard De’Aaron Fox in the win over the Pelicans, and he made an immediate difference, scoring 24 points. Fox’s impressive performance helped San Antonio overcome a fourth consecutive off-game from Wembanyama by his standards (18 points, 18 rebounds, and three blocks on two-for-nine shooting from beyond the arc). Now that Fox and Jeremy Sochan are back in the fold, the Spurs are the healthiest they’ve been all season, especially if Luke Kornet returns from the ankle injury that has sidelined him for the last seven games.

Spurs at Bulls pick, best bet

San Antonio would have lost to New Orleans if not for Fox, as it won his 31 minutes by nine points in a game it won by seven overall. He and Wembanyama played just five games together last season before Wembanyama was ruled out with a blood clot in his shoulder, but in that time, they displayed flashes of chemistry. On Saturday, they out-scored the Pelicans by 16.3 points per 100 possessions in the 26 minutes that they played together, and the Spurs’ starting lineup overall was a plus-10.6. 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, who averaged just 3.1 assists per game in the 17 games he played alongside Fox, had 13 dimes and only two turnovers, and he was the most frequent recipient of Fox’s passes. Fox also caught 15 passes from Wembanyama after catching just 7.8 per game from him in the limited sample size last season.

Having another reliable offensive option to pass it to should help Wembanyama beat the constant double-teams that opponents have thrown at him in the last four games. The last four games have been a reminder that the 21-year-old, while supremely talented, is not yet a complete offensive player, and San Antonio has been 8.7 points per 100 possessions better offensively with him off the floor. Some shooting luck normalization should help: after draining 39.7% of his wide-open threes last season, he’s down to just 29.4% so far in 2025-26. Regardless, he should hardly sniff the three-point line tonight against a team that has allowed by far the most restricted-area attempts this season. He’s averaged just 10 points per game in the paint over his last four games despite shooting 77.0% in the restricted area, the sixth-best mark among the 36 players to try at least five such shots per game.

Offensively, Chicago also likes to target the post, attempting 2.5 more restricted-area shots per game than any other team in the NBA. The issue is that the Bulls haven’t made anything, posting the third-worst field goal percentage, and that’s unlikely to change against the league’s most fearsome rim protector. Opponents have generally avoided testing Wembanyama inside, for good reason — of the 48 players who have played at least seven games this season and guarded at least five restricted-area shots per game, he’s conceded the 10th-lowest percentage. If Chicago is forced away from the rim by Wembanyama’s presence, it could be a problem: the Bulls have shot just 28.9% in the midrange, where the Spurs have forced the most shots per game. While they’ve shot the fourth-best percentage from beyond the arc, that’s attributable to an above-average 41.0% mark on unguarded three-pointers.

A key for the Bulls will be getting Wembanyama in foul trouble, but they’ve drawn the ninth-fewest fouls so far this season despite their paint-heavy shot diet. They have drawn the fifth-most charges, though, and Wembanyama has already been whistled for nearly as many offensive fouls (eight) as he did in 46 games last season (10). Chicago will also need to force more turnovers than it has across the season’s first three weeks; San Antonio has allowed the seventh-most points after a giveaway, in part because Castle and Wembanyama both rank in the league’s top 20 in turnovers per game. Fox has turned the ball over more than three times just thrice in his 18 games with the Spurs.

Last Friday, I picked the Bucks to comfortably beat the Bulls because any paint-oriented game would favor the team with the better big men. Chicago will be able to hold its own in the post against Sochan whenever Wembanyama is off the floor, but it doesn’t have the requisite skills to force fouls and turnovers, the quickest way to get him out of the game.

Best bet: San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-105)