On paper, the Atlanta Hawks arguably had the best offseason of any team in the Eastern Conference, bringing in Kristaps Porziņġis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard to bolster a core that already featured Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, and Dyson Daniels. The LA Clippers also seemed to have a great summer, acquiring John Collins, Brook Lopez, Chris Paul, and Bradley Beal.
So far, both teams have been among the league’s biggest disappointments. Atlanta is just 5-5, and Young is out for at least the next few weeks with a knee injury. Meanwhile, the Clippers have lost each of their last four games to drop to 3-6, and Kawhi Leonard is expected to miss at least a few games with an ankle sprain.
Regardless, one of these teams will pick up a win when Intuit Dome plays host to the their 10:30 p.m. ET clash.
LA is a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-185 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 220.5. The Hawks, meanwhile, are +154 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this inter-league clash and offer my prediction.
Atlanta Hawks at LA Clippers preview, prediction
Atlanta has gone 3-2 without Young despite facing some solid competition, beating the Orlando Magic by 15 points and pulling off a surprising 122-102 win over the Los Angeles Lakers without Johnson and Alexander-Walker, both of whom are questionable for tonight. In Young’s absence, Daniels has picked up more ball-handling ability and has found success, averaging 14.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 2.4 steals per game, including a career-high 13-dime effort against the Lakers. Johnson, one of just eight players averaging at least 20 points, eight rebounds, and four assists per game this season, has had three 20-point games since Young’s injury, and 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher has found his footing after a slow start to his sophomore season.
The Clippers have been incapable of managing without Leonard the last three games. The biggest culprit has been Beal, who had the opportunity to shine in a November 6 game against the Phoenix Suns in which LA was missing both Leonard and Harden, but he shot just two-for-14 (14.3%) from the field, along with two turnovers and three fouls. He was better in the Clippers’ loss to the Suns two days later, but Harden shot just four-for-15 from the field and Kris Dunn had five fouls. Paul and Bogdan Bogdanović are both shooting less than 30% from the field, prompting Tyronn Lue to sit both of them during LA’s defeat on Saturday.
Hawks at Clippers pick, best bet
The Clippers have inexplicably declined on defense, ranking 26th in defensive rating so far this season after finishing third in that stat last season, and while some of that is luck, it can also be tied to the team’s age. Paul and Lopez aren’t anywhere near the game-wrecking defenders they once were, and Harden, who was never elite, has recorded a negative defensive box plus/minus for the first time in his career. LA’s defense could be a disaster without Leonard; in the three games since his injury, the Clippers have bettered only the Washington Wizards’ mark. They’ve been slightly better defensively without him on the floor in a small sample size but were 7.8 points per 100 points better with him in his last full season in 2023-24.
The Clippers have once again been among the league’s most exploitable teams inside, allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage on shots at the rim after allowing the second-highest restricted-area percentage last season. Ivica Zubac, who finished sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season has posted a negative-0.9 defensive box plus/minus this season. Some of it is luck — LA has conceded the second-highest field goal percentage on wide-open threes — but by allowing the fourth-most uncontested shots, the Clippers aren’t helping themselves. The Hawks should be able to take advantage: they’ve taken the fifth-most restricted-area attempts while converting at an above-average clip. Atlanta could be able to drag Zubac away from the paint defensively with Porziņġis back after missing one game with an illness.
Defensively, the Hawks have had an above-average unit for the first time since 2016-17. Atlanta has been particularly stingy in the restricted area, allowing the seventh-lowest percentage on shots around the rim, but it has let opponents take a friendly shot diet, conceding the sixth-most attempts at the rim and the seventh-most from the corner while forcing the sixth-fewest mid-range jumpers. Regardless, the Hawks have held teams to the fourth-lowest percentage from beyond the arc, and while some of it can be attributed to the fact that opponents have canned wide-open triples at the second-lowest rate, they’ve also contested the eighth-most threes, including the second-most so far in November. LA has made its uncontested threes at the league’s fourth-highest rate and has still struggled.
Once again, turnovers have continued to dog the Clippers. This season, they’ve coughed it up the sixth-most times and compounded their mistakes by not hustling back in transition, allowing the most points off of turnovers and the 10th-most fast-break points. Atlanta ranks fourth in points off of turnovers and ninth in fast-break points, thanks in part to Daniels, last season’s Most Improved Player and Defensive Player of the Year runner-up. In the teams’ two matchups last season, Daniels forced Harden into seven turnovers and recorded three steals in each game. Risacher has also nearly doubled his steal percentage from his rookie season and has snagged two or more steals in three of his last four games.
At some point, LA is due for some defensive improvement, but with their swarming defensive style, ability to drag Zubac out of the paint, and prowess at the rim, the Hawks are simply a bad matchup. This game seems like it should be a toss-up, which incentivizes me to take the underdogs.
