Last week, with Chicago Bears running back D’Andre Swift sidelined with a groin injury, rookie Kyle Monangai got the first real opportunity of his NFL career. The 23-year-old made the most of it, turning his 26 carries into 176 yards and adding three catches for a further 22 yards through the air as the Bears managed a thrilling 47-42 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. It was a one-off cameo as Chicago’s lone reliable running back, as Swift is slated to make his return for Sunday’s game against the New York Giants, but will it mean Monangai goes back to the minor role he had earlier in the season?
It’s possible that change could be on the horizon: after Wednesday’s practice, Bears head coach Ben Johnson suggested to CHGO Bears on X that he had confidence in all of his skill position players and that, “hopefully, they feel a little competition amongst themselves”.
Some observers speculated that that could mean more touches for Monangai, especially given Johnson’s background; before coming to Chicago, he served as the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, where Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery comprised arguably the best running back duo in the NFL. Swift and Monangai aren’t as good as either of those players, but running a system for two star running backs is very much in Johnson’s wheelhouse.
I’d still expect Swift to take the bulk of the carries on Sunday, given that he’s had a solid 100 carries, 464 yards, and four scores, good for above-average efficiency and an above-average rushing success rate. He’s also been reasonably effective through the air, catching at least 75% of his targets in five of his six seasons and averaging at least 25 receiving yards per game in four of them.
Monangai’s numbers might be slightly better this season after his breakout performance, but Swift is a solid NFL running back and hasn’t struggled enough to completely lose his starting spot. The Bears have half a season of tape on both Monangai and Swift, and it’ll take more than one game for them to anoint him the full-time starter, just as it took an additional two weeks for the Carolina Panthers to choose Rico Dowdle over Chuba Hubbard despite Dowdle’s far lengthier track record vis-a-vis Monangai’s. Plus, Monangai’s breakout game came against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have one of the worst run defenses in NFL history. That’s not his fault, of course — he can only evade the tacklers in front of him — but it’s weaker proof that he’s capable of being an every-day starter than, say, a similarly productive game against the Seattle Seahawks or Cleveland Browns would be.
Thankfully for both running backs, the Giants haven’t been good either — by expected points added, they’ve been even worse than Cincinnati, and they rank third-to-last by Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades, allowing the second-most rushing yards on the best efficiency. That might actually work in Swift’s favor; if he starts off the game with some solid runs against New York’s porous defense, Johnson might continue to ride with the hot hand. Plus, if Chicago builds a lead, it’s also more likely to turn to Swift, who has received a greater proportion of the team’s snaps with the lead than he has while the team is trailing.
If Monangai’s performance against the Bengals was a real indicator of his talent, he’ll win the starting job eventually. Just as in the case of Dowdle, though, it might take time. I’d expect him to be the junior partner in a two-back tandem on Sunday, receiving somewhere around 10 carries to Swift’s 15.
