The Buffalo Bills are facing a dog-fight atop the AFC East for the first time in six seasons, as after five straight division titles, they’re merely tied atop the division with the New England Patriots at 6-2.
That’s not to say that Buffalo has been bad, an uncharacteristic defeat against the Atlanta Falcons aside. 2024 NFL MVP Josh Allen hasn’t missed a beat, completing 70.4% of his passes for 1,833 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions while rushing an additional 55 times for 280 yards and seven scores. He’s been complemented by running back James Cook, who leads the league with 5.7 yards per carry and 108.4 rushing yards per game, going from a solid starter in 2023 to a true star in 2024 to an Offensive Player of the Year candidate in 2025.
But the Bills might be without Cook for Sunday’s clash against the Miami Dolphins. He suffered foot and ankle injuries during Sunday’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs and sat out practice this morning while dealing with the injuries. While his status for the game has yet to be revealed, Buffalo shouldn’t need him to beat a struggling Miami team and might be extra cautious with him.
If he doesn’t play, it would open up more opportunities for the rest of the Bills’ running back corps. Because Cook has been so reliable and Allen is so mobile under center, Buffalo hasn’t really had an RB2, with Ty Johnson (17 carries) and Ray Davis (22) the only other backs to receive any carries this season. Davis actually recorded more carries than Allen last season, and he also recorded six total touchdowns, so he could be the leading option on Sunday ahead of Johnson.
Still, the running backs should probably operate an egalitarian enough snap share that neither will be fantasy-viable. Last season, Johnson was more effective both as a runner and receiver than Davis, and he’s been more efficient than Davis this season, too. His success rate as a receiver is far lower, in part because he’s recorded two drops on his nine targets, but Davis’ hands haven’t been particularly reliable, either. As a rusher, Johnson has generated more yards before contact and more yards after contact. Johnson has never had a season with more than 63 carries, but his career 4.5 yards per attempt figure far out-paces Davis, and at five-foot-10, he has more typical size for a bellcow. If I had to choose either Bills running back, I’d go with Johnson, but I’m not Sean McDermott.
To be fair, Miami’s run defense is awful, as it has allowed the third-most rushing yards to running backs and the fourth-most fantasy points per game. The Dolphins have also allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt and rank 14th-to-last by expected points added, so if there’s any defense against whom Davis is going to improve his efficiency, it’ll be this one. The issue is, Miami’s secondary is even worse, ranking third-to-last by expected points added, third-to-last by adjusted yards per attempt, dead last by passer rating, and ninth-to-last by fantasy points to quarterbacks. With the game taking place in sunny South Florida, Buffalo should lean heavily on Allen’s arm and eschew running the ball as much as possible.
