A few years ago, this was a Stanley Cup Final matchup. Tampa Bay was a perennial NHL power whom the Colorado Avalanche rose to defeat behind a great young core. Since then, both teams have struggled to get back to the promised land and have had rocky starts this year.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Colorado is a firm -142 Moneyline favorite at home, and the game’s total is set at 6.5 goals. Tampa Bay is the road underdog, priced at +120 on the moneyline. Let’s get into a prediction and pick for this Lightning-Avalanche showdown.
Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction, preview
Colorado’s young core is all grown up, and they continue to dominate. Nathan MacKinnon has racked up 10 goals and 19 total points through 13 games, continuing to look like his Hart Trophy-winning self. Cale Makar, gunning for his third Norris Trophy, has 18 points and leads the league with a plus/minus of +12. Martin Necas, the headliner of the Mikko Rantanen trade to the Hurricanes, has been excellent in the early going.
So far, Colorado’s main issue has been luck. They lead the NHL with 47 total goals, but have also lost five times in overtime in 13 total games. The extra points help, but it speaks to how close they have come to an exceptional start.
Tampa Bay’s luck has turned lately. After dropping six of their first seven games, the Lightning have managed five straight wins. The defense looks strong, but they still need more from their top forwards. So far, nobody is clearing the point-per-game mark despite their strong high-end talents like Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Brandon Hagel.
Lightning vs. Avalanche pick, best bet
Both teams come in with top-10 defensive units. But the gap between Colorado’s offensive talent and the struggling Tampa Bay offense is the difference here. Even with the Moneyline in their favor, the Avs have value defending their home ice.
