The New Orleans Saints have struggled on offense this year, but they’ll look to turn things around and start some positive momentum by going to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough in place of Spencer Rattler this week. That may not be the only change, though, since veteran running back Alvin Kamara (ankle) is officially questionable after a limited week of practice. If he is limited or out, will that open the door for Devin Neal or Audric Estime to emerge as viable fantasy plays?
The Saints’ running back depth could be the scariest thing you see this Halloween, but there is some interesting potential value. Let’s dive in and check out the latest injury update on Kamara and the fantasy outlook for Neal and Estime for Week 9 and beyond.
Analysis
Alvin Kamara Injury Update
Kamara has been one of the hottest names coming up to the NFL Trade Deadline. While there’s no arguing with his production over the course of his career, his numbers this year have been disappointing. He is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry on his 100 carries through eight weeks and is on pace for the fewest receiving yards of any season in his career. On top of that, he has just a single touchdown. Most of his struggles are more due to his usage and the offense’s overall struggle rather than a decline in skill, but now he’ll also have an injury tacked on top of all that.
He is trending the right way to play this Sunday, according to coach Kellen Moore:
If Kamara sits, though, whether to preserve his trade value or because pushing through doesn’t make sense, there would be a ton of work available for his backups. Earlier this season, he shared time with Kendre Miller and had worked to about a 60/40 timeshare, at least until Miller went down with a knee injury for the season. Last week, Kamara played 51% of snaps while Devin Neal played 46%. No other running back played any snaps.
Is Devin Neal for Real?
The Saints drafted Neal in the sixth round from Kansas. He has also been limited with an ankle injury and got a questionable tag as well. Last week, even though he played almost half the snaps, Neal didn’t get a single carry. He did, however, haul in all three of his targets for 11 receiving yards. Neal was deployed as a workhorse at Kansas as the focus of the Jayhawks offense. He isn’t super fast or elusive but is a big, solid producer who has shown good hands in the passing game. Whether Kamara plays or not, Neal will likely get more work over the next few weeks as the team looks to evaluate all its rookies headed into the next step of their rebuild.
His own injury could hold him back, but as he gets more looks, he could have upside next to Shough in the Saints all-rookie backfield.
Could it be Audric Estime’s time?
The Saints added Estime to their practice squad when Miller went down with his torn ACL, and a promotion to the active roster for Sunday’s game seems likely since both Neal and Kamara are banged up. Estime got some sleeper buzz when the Broncos drafted him in the fifth round before last season out of Notre Dame. He battled an ankle injury early in the season and had ball-security issues once he returned. He eventually worked his way into a timeshare with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. It looked like he was going to claim a significant role for a while, but ultimately, Williams led the way down the stretch.
Estime finished his rookie season with 310 rushing yards on 76 carries in his 13 games and five catches on five targets for 27 more yards. He was inactive in the Wild Card game and the team overhauled its running back room for this season. Estime was waived at the end of the preseason after RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins took over the split. He signed with the Eagles’ practice squad in August and then with the Saints on October 21.
Estime has mostly been used as a between-the-tackles, downhill runner. He doesn’t add much in the passing game but could take over early down work with Neal fitting in as the third-down back. This week, he could end up supplementing either Kamara or Neal if the other one is out, but he’ll be an extremely risky flier play with touchdown-dependent upside in an offense that hasn’t been scoring much.
The Bottom Line
The Saints have a tough matchup against the Rams, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. With a new quarterback, it’s going to be a challenge for any running back to produce. The situation still definitely deserves to be monitored, though, since Kamara could be traded or phased out and Neal could have real value. He’ll have to overcome his injury, but if he does so, this could be a sneak peak at his long-term upside. I like Neal as a speculative scoop from the waiver wire in 12+ team leagues. Estime is an even deeper dive, but he did have enough upside to be fantasy relevant last season in Denver, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he will be later this season.
In one-week DFS contests like the NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st], all three running backs are cheap plays. Kamara has touchdown-dependent upside if he plays at just $5,500, while Neal would be a bargain at $4,500. If either of them are out and Estime is promoted, Estime would be a punt play at the position at his minimum salary of $4,000. He’d need to find the end zone to really go off since he’s not much of a pass-catcher, but he has one of the clearest paths to playing time of all the $4,000 options this week, making him useful for roster construction if either running back is sidelined.
