Two years ago, 2023 first overall pick Victor Wembanyama got the “generational prospect” label, and he’s done absolutely nothing to suggest that he didn’t deserve it. Tonight, his San Antonio Spurs will face the Dallas Mavericks and the most recent first overall pick with the “generational prospect” label: Cooper Flagg. (Sorry to 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher of the Atlanta Hawks, who had a fine rookie season, but was much less ballyhooed than Wembanyama or Flagg).
It’s the first matchup in what NBA fans are surely hoping is a decades-long rivalry, and it calls back to October 25, 2023, when Wembanyama opened his NBA career with a clash against “generational prospect” Luka Dončić, then on the Mavericks. It will tip at the American Airlines Center at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-155 on the Moneyline), with the point total set for 224.5. San Antonio is +130 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this clash of future titans and offer my prediction.
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
Flagg’s situation is untraditional for a No. 1 overall pick, since he’s joining a team with championship aspirations after acquiring Anthony Davis in the deal that sent Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers. The roster around Flagg is much more talented than that which surrounded Wembanyama in his debut two seasons ago, even with Kyrie Irving out for the first several months of the season after suffering a torn ACL in March. Still, Flagg will be tasked with plenty of responsibility until Irving returns, as Dallas’ next-most important players, center Dereck Lively II and shooting guard Klay Thompson, aren’t typically asked to handle the ball on a possession-to-possession basis. He looked fairly polished in the preseason, especially as a defender, but Mavericks fans should expect some growing pains for the 18-year-old, just as Dončić had in his brilliant rookie campaign.
The Spurs, meanwhile, are ready to compete now, and Wembanyama explicitly suggested that the season would be a failure if they did not attain a top-six seed in the West. San Antonio also benefited from some lottery luck, landing Rutgers point guard Dylan Harper with the second overall pick, and Harper showed some flashes in the preseason as well. He joins 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle in the back court while trade deadline acquisition De’Aaron Fox continues to recover from a hamstring injury. This team, though, is about Wembanyama, and the Frenchman has seemingly taken yet another leap, growing an inch to seven-foot-four and demonstrating a deeper bag of post moves after training with Hall of Famers Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Garnett during the offseason.
Spurs at Mavericks pick, best bet
If Wembanyama is not the best player on the floor, the Spurs have no shot, given their lack of depth relative to Dallas. San Antonio shouldn’t completely collapse without him as it did last season, when it was blitzed by 6.7 points per 100 possessions without him and went 11-19 with the league’s fourth-worst defensive rating after he was ruled out for the season with deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder. The Spurs signed Luke Kornet to be Wembanyama’s backup and tango partner in double-big sets, and duo looked excellent in a preseason in which San Antonio went 5-0. Regardless, the Mavericks’ depth pieces — Brandon Williams, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, and P.J. Washington — excite me more than the Spurs’ backup unit of Jordan McLaughlin, Harper, Keldon Johnson, and Kornet.
Davis might be the league’s best interior defender not named Wembanyama and is an unstoppable force on offense when his jumper is falling. He had a monster 26-point, 16-rebound, three-block effort in his Dallas debut before suffering an adductor strain, and he was excellent in the Mavericks’ Play-In Tournament win over the Sacramento Kings as well. It was a tough campaign for Davis overall, starting the season on a semi-dysfunctional Lakers team, but he enjoyed a lengthy stretch of MVP-caliber play right before the Dončić deal. Among the 44 players who played at least 45 games and defended at least five shots per game within six feet of the basket, Davis held opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage, one spot behind Wembanyama. He’s also a far more polished post player than Wemby; among the 14 players to average three or more post-ups per game last season, Davis had the sixth-best efficiency and turned the ball over at the sixth-lowest rate, while Wembanyama ranked last in both categories.
Beyond their brilliant two-way big men, both teams have a lot of questions. First overall picks have had a poor track record early on, especially when tasked with as much ball-handling and defensive responsibilities as Flagg will be, and the last first overall pick to win as a starter in his debut was Cade Cunningham in 2021 (Atlanta won, but Risacher came off the bench, unlike Flagg tonight). The Mavericks’ nominal point guard is D’Angelo Russell, but he’s an inefficient, score-first player who has been a consistently negative defender throughout his career. San Antonio’s youth is a similar issue: Castle’s ball-dominant play after the All-Star break didn’t exactly result in wins, and he finished the season as the league’s 16th-worst qualified player by box plus-minus. Harper had plenty of questions, especially regarding his jumper, at Rutgers. In general, the Spurs had defensive holes even before Wembanyama’s injury.
Historically, Davis has been effective against Wembanyama, averaging 30.8 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game against his gargantuan counterpart, and Los Angeles won four of the five games. However, Wemby has arguably been better on an individual level, averaging 25.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.8 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game.
Davis’ big-guard exploits were unique and fascinating until Wembanyama entered the league. In a game with so much uncertainty, logic would dictate that the nominally deeper team with home court advantage will win, but few players have ever struck as much shock and awe in their NBA peers as Wembanyama has. He’s widely predicted to make an MVP-level leap this season, and those are the kinds of players it’s foolish to pick against.
