Two of the four Division Series will need a deciding Game 5, and the first of those two high-drama contests will be this Friday as, the Tigers and Mariners try to punch their ticket to Toronto, where the ALCS begins on Sunday. The two teams split the two games in Seattle and the two games in Detroit, with the Tigers winning on Wednesday to set up this winner-moves-on showdown. Can the Tigers rally to a road win or will Seattle be sleepless on Friday night while celebrating moving on? Let’s look at some overall strategy for the Tigers vs. Mariners MLB DFS.
The pitching matchup for Game 5 sets up to be a great one. The Tigers turn to ace Tarik Skubal ($12,800) while the Mariners give the ball to George Kirby ($11,400). Kirby pitched Game 1 of the series, while Skubal pitched Game 2. Ironically, each starting pitcher’s team lost the game they started, although they both earned a no-decision.
Let’s take a look at what to expect and how to attack this Tigers vs. Mariners MLB DFS matchup from a DraftKings Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st] (DET at SEA)
Tigers vs. Mariners Game 5 Showdown
Captain’s Picks
Tarik Skubal ($19,200 CP) – While he’s tricky to build around at this inflated salary, Skubal’s strikeout upside makes his ceiling too high to skip past. In his two playoff starts, Skubal posted 43.6 FPTS and 26.2 FPTS, which means that in a Captain’s Pick spot he earned 65.4 FPTS and 39.3 FPTS, respectively, with the 1.5x multiplier. Skubal has 23 strikeouts in 14 ⅔ innings over those two starts while allowing only three runs on eight hits. Skubal finished the regular season strong, as well, with at least 23 FPTS in six of his last seven starts. He had a weird down game in Miami, but other than that, he has been totally locked in over the past few months.
The Mariners tend to be a high-strikeout team, so even if they do get a few runs against the Tigers’ ace, his punchout production could still be enough to make him the right pay-up Captain’s Pick to build around. You’ll just have to be careful to spend wisely in your UTIL spots.
Javier Baez ($6,600 CP) – If you expect both starting pitchers to post strong games and want them both on your roster, you’ll probably have to use UTIL spots for them and go cheap at Captain. My favorite value play in this spot is Javy Baez, who has put together a solid series so far.
Baez homered and had a monster performance in Game 4, going 2-for-4 with a stolen base, four RBI and 28 FPTS. He has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, dating back to the regular season, going 15-for-42 (.357) with an average of 8.7 FPTS per contest. He did go 0-for-5 in Game 1 when Kirby started, but he has homered off him in the past during the regular season. He’s high-risk, but comes in with strong and relatively consistent recent form for such a bargain play. If you don’t use Baez as a Captain’s Pick, he works well as a bargain UTIL.
UTIL Plays
Julio Rodriguez ($8,600) – I included Rodriguez in my home run props for today, and even though he went 0-for-9 in Detroit, I think he’ll be able to have some success as the series shifts back to Seattle. He went 4-for-9 with a homer and 29 FPTS in the first two games of the series, and he finished the season playing very well — fueling the late-season surge by the Mariners. He had a huge homer off Skubal when they met in the regular season, and he brings a high ceiling against the lefty on Friday night even though he’s high-risk because of the matchup.
Spencer Torkelson ($6,800) – Torkelson has hit safely in each of the last three games in this series, averaging 10.0 FPTS per game with three doubles and four RBI. Torkelson has run hot and cold this season, but he’s finishing strong with at least six fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He has been one of the Tigers’ most consistent hitters down the stretch and is a solid fantasy value since he’s not completely reliant on home runs, like many of the other more expensive bats in this matchup.
Victor Robles ($4,000) – With the lefty Skubal on the mound, Robles will likely get the start, and he brings nice bargain potential even if he comes out of the game once Skubal exits. Robles missed much of the season with a shoulder injury, suffered when he crashed into the netting early in the year. He battled back to the majors, although he had to serve a suspension for a bat-throwing incident along the way, as well. In this series, he has started every game in RF and gotten multiple at-bats in each game. He is 1-for-10 with a double, three walks and a total of 13 FPTS in the four games. Robles brings decent power and speed upside for a play at only $4,000 to round out your roster.
Fades
Josh Naylor ($7,000) & J.P. Crawford ($5,200) – In a single-game showdown, you can’t totally avoid the Mariners against Skubal. However, I’d definitely stay away from these lefties. Skubal held lefties to a .214 batting average and .223 wOBA on the year, giving up just one long ball to a lefty all season. Naylor is 2-for-18 against Skubal in their past matchups, and even though Crawford is a much better 5-for-8, I don’t trust him in the splits against Skubal. On the other side of the matchup, I’m also not a huge fan of Riley Greene ($8,200) or Kerry Carpenter ($7,600), since they have done so little aside from their two home runs in the series. While each definitely brings upside, they are just are too expensive to pay up for given their “bust” potential.
The Outcome
In what should be a dramatic low-scoring game, I think the Mariners will get just enough against the Tigers’ bullpen to win this game, possibly in extra innings. The two aces should be strong enough to keep the score down early, but ultimately, I believe in the Mariners magic to push them to the ALCS against the Blue Jays.
