On Friday night, the Tigers and Mariners clash in the deciding Game 5 of their ALCS, battling for the right to head to Toronto for the start of the ALCS on Sunday night. Even with only one game on the slate, there are still some good options for home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There is sure to be plenty of drama and excitement, but which players have the best chance of going yard to help their team advance? After taking a look at the matchups, game environment, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for tonight are for Riley Greene and Kike Hernandez.
Just like during the regular season, all home run props are long shot bets by their very nature. In fact, with such a small pool and elite pitchers, they are even more difficult to hit in the postseason. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can point us in the right direction.
While home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re so volatile. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these home run props in Friday’s Game 5.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spencer Torkelson 1+ Home Run (+570)
The Tigers send Tarik Skubal to the mound in this matchup against George Kirby. In Game 1, Kirby went five innings and gave up two runs. Both those runs came on a blast from Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter has had a quiet series since then, though, while Torkelson’s home run props come at much more favorable odds, and he has been more consistent throughout the series.
Torkelson has gone 6-for-26 with three doubles this postseason and all three of those doubles have come in his last three games against the Mariners.
The 26-year-old had a breakthrough season this year, hitting 31 homers in 155 games with a career-high .240 batting average and .339 wOBA. Of those 31 homers, 21 came against righties like Kirby. He had most of his power production early in the season, but he did have three blasts in the last two weeks of the season.
Kirby gave up 15 homers during the regular season and does a good job keeping the ball in the yard, especially at home. However, he has given up four homers in his last four starts, dating back to the regular season.
Since Torkelson has had good at bats and come up clutch in the last few games, I like his home run props as a longshot play this Friday in Game 5.
Julio Rodriguez 1+ Home Run (+620)
Playing any home run props from the Mariners is obviously going to be risky since they’re facing one of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball in Tarik Skubal. However, the odds are pretty juicy, especially for someone like Rodriguez, who could step up and be the hero in Seattle on Friday.
Rodriguez matched his career-high this year with 32 homers. Most of his production came in the second half with 21 of those 32 homers after July 1. He had a higher ISO against lefties than righties this year, posting a .238 ISO and .337 wOBA in the splits while hitting 10 homers against southpaws.
Rodriguez homered in the first game of this series and usually steps up at home. He also has homered off Skubal in their past matchups as well, going 2-for-11.
Skubal did give up a pair of home runs in his first start of this series, both by Jorge Polanco, whose home run props are +690 for Game 5. During the regular season, Skubal allowed 18 homers in his 31 starts with most of them coming on the road against righties. In fact, lefties only hit one homer off him all year, while righties in road games had 10 of those 18 homers and a .243 wOBA.
It’s high-risk to go against Skubal, but Rodriguez has been a key piece of the core of this squad, and he’ll look to move them on to Toronto with a win this Friday. I love getting his home run props at these juicy long odds because of the tough matchup.
