NFL Week 5 is upon us — you can find all my NFL Week 5 best bets below. The article will be constantly updated throughout the week as I add picks.
Saints ML (-125) 1-unit: The Giants initially opened as a road favorite here, but the market has since corrected itself. While the public is riding high on Jaxson Dart and the big win over the Chargers, the 0-4 Saints have something to prove at home here. The Chargers really hurt themselves in that game with some crucial errors, and the Giants didn’t play all that well. It’s going to take improvement from New York to go on the road and get a win here, which will be a tall task without Malik Nabers and some other key injuries. If we toss out a blowout loss in Seattle, the Saints have played respectable football this season. They played the Niners and Cardinals tough at home, and even hung with Buffalo on the road last week. Despite an 0-4 record, New Orleans isn’t the doormat we had it pegged as preseason. This is a great spot for the Saints to earn their first victory of the season.
Seahawks 1H -2.5 (-118) 1-unit: I like the Seahawks at home in this one, but was hoping to lay a field goal or shorter. Tampa has shown plenty of grit late in games, but is dealing with cluster injuries and has gotten off to slow starts on the season. Seattle has been the opposite, sitting at 3-1 1H ATS, including double digit halftime leads in consecutive games. The Seahawks are also 2-0 1H ATS in home games this season. The defense has been tremendous for Seattle, and Sam Darnold has been able to hold it down on offense. With a long trip here on top of the compounding injuries, I expect the Bucs to get out to another slow start in Seattle.
David Montgomery OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 1.5-units: Montgomery is 2-2 to the over on this number on the young season, but his big games have been based on matchup. He’s been completely shutdown in Weeks 1 and 4 by elite Green Bay and Cleveland run defenses, but shredded the Bears and Ravens for a combined 208 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 23 carries. This week’s matchup as a double-digit favorite over the helpless Bengals represents another spot for Monty to go off. Cincinnati ranks 26th in the NFL against the rush, allowing over 135 yards per game. If we toss out the Week 1 game against the Browns before Cleveland had Quinshon Judkins active, that number jumps to almost 165 rushing yards per game allowed. That includes 186 on MNF in Denver, where JK Dobbins ran for over 100 himself. With Jahmyr Gibbs nearly 30 yards higher than Montgomery, this feels like a terrific spot to buy low on the latter.
Michael Carter OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.5-units: With James Conner out and now Trey Benson joining him on IR, the Arizona backfield is getting thin. Emari Demercado saw a couple of carries in last Thursday’s loss to the Seahawks, but is predominantly the passing down back. The Cardinals seem like they want to keep Demercado’s role similar to what it has been, which suggests Carter will be handling the work between the tackles on early downs. Had Conner or Benson been healthy for this game, we’d likely see a rushing prop about 30 yards higher, so I’m grabbing the discount on Carter in the mid-40’s. The Titans have been an embarrassment through four games, giving up over 140 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL). Tennessee hasn’t been keeping games close, so if chalk holds and Arizona can break this open as a favorite of north of a touchdown, this could be a perfect game script for Carter to see a heavy workload in the second half.
Bills Team Total OVER 28.5 (-115) 1.5-units: The Bills are in a pretty strong spot to put up some points here. The perception here is that this will be a good measuring stick for the Patriots, after dominating the Panthers last week. I don’t think the Pats are up to the task, particularly on defense. We’ve already seen Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa carve up New England’s secondary, and I expect Josh Allen to do so with ease. The Bills are second in the NFL in scoring at 33.3 points per game, and have reached the 30-point mark in all four of their games. Until the Patriots prove they’ve figured out the defense against a legitimate offense, I’m not buying in. No reason to believe the Bills offense doesn’t continue to put up big numbers here.
(LOSS) 6-Point Teaser: LAR -2.5/BUF -2.5 (-135) 2-units: We’ve seen about a five-point move on the Rams on TNF this week, opening a 3.5-point home favorite, and ballooning up to 8.5. While the Rams are playing good football, and the 49ers are off a disappointing loss to the Jaguars, this move is based strictly off the injury report. Already without key pieces like Nick Bosa and George Kittle, the Niners will go on the road on a short week here without Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, among others. The Niners are just going to be playing with so many backups on the road here on a short week, it’s hard to see how they generate any offense. I’m also very confident in the Bills dominating on SNF. The Patriots are gaining some unwarranted hype for dominating a bad Carolina team, and now have to go on the road to face a Buffalo offense that they have almost no chance in stopping. Look for the Bills to hang a big number in this one, and I’m not sure they can keep up against a defense allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL. The Patriots will need to attack the Bills on the ground in this one, which has not been a strong suit.
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