Get ready for an ugly one on Saturday afternoon in the swamp, as the No. 9 ranked Texas Longhorns face the disappointing Florida Gators. While Texas has beaten the teams put in front of it since the Week 1 loss at Ohio State, blowouts over San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston all in Austin essentially tells us nothing about this team.
What we did learn in the trip to Columbus is that the Longhorns are legit on defense, holding the Buckeyes to just 14 points. Texas has also given up just 17 combined points in those past three cupcake games. But we also watched Arch Manning and the offense struggle mightily on the road against an elite defense, and while the Gators are no Ohio State, they’ve held their own on defense this season.
Florida pounded LIU 55-0 in its opener, but has been playing in grinders since then. There was the stunning 18-16 home loss to USF, followed by a 20-10 loss at LSU, and then a 26-7 loss in Miami. That leaves the Gators averaging 11 points over the last three games, and going up against a defense that’s as good or better than anything they’ve seen this season.
All of that together suggests the under being a very strong play in this game, and while I’ve bet it that way in the mid-40’s, we’re now down to a total of 42.5 in the game as I write this on Thursday afternoon. The total had touched as low as 41.5, and while I still lean under at the current total, I’m going to focus on the Texas side of the scoring.
I believe the Longhorns could be in even more trouble than we think offensively, and could be in for a rude awakening here on their second road trip of the season. Keep in mind that despite losing three in a row, Florida held three pretty good teams to an average of 21.7 points per game. Miami’s elite offense was the only one to score more than 20 points in that span, and were playing at home. DJ Lagway tossed five interceptions at Death Valley, and yet Garrett Nussmeier and the Tigers only managed to put 20 points on the board.
Believe it or not, I think Florida has a real chance in this game. But rather than roll the dice on the Gators, I feel much more comfortable playing an under in some form or fashion. A first half under feels like a strong play, and the full game, even at a depressed total, would be the only side I could have. However, Texas’ team total is at a high enough number that I feel playing the under there is the strongest play in the game.
The Hurricanes are the only team this season to score above 24.5 points against the Gators, and that was on the road. In a big SEC game in the Swamp with Billy Napier’s job on the line. I think we see a strong effort here from Florida on defense. We’ve already seen Manning struggle in an environment like this a month ago, and I think we see it again on Saturday afternoon in Gainesville. Chomp chomp.
CFB Pick: Texas Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-130) — 2-units
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