Air Force hosts Hawaii in this Mountain West showdown, and the Falcons have been bet up significantly as the home favorite. Air Force opened laying just a field goal here, which interests me, but the spread is now approaching a touchdown. Rather than lay to bigger number, I’m going to focus in on the Falcons scoring the ball against a Hawaii team that’s played a lot of football and done a lot of traveling on the young season.
The Rainbow Warriors played in Week 0, sneaking by a bad Stanford team at home. They’ve played every week since, traveling to Arizona, back to the island for a home stand, and now back out on the road to Air Force. This will be their sixth game, playing against a fresher Falcons team that’s played three games, and only had a short road trip to Utah State.
Hawaii’s defense has been decent at home against mostly lesser competition, but in its road trip to Arizona it let up 40 points to the Wildcats. I think giving up points off the island could be a trend here for Hawaii. Air Force is a quality offense as well, going for 49 in the opener against Bucknell, 30 on the road at Utah State, and then putting up an impressive 37 against Boise State last week.
The Falcons’ offense presents a difficult scheme for the Bows to defend, and I think we should see this game go up and down. I lean to laying the points with Air Force, but at the bigger number, I feel looking to isolate points from the home team is the play here. Give me the Falcons to do what they’ve done all season, and reach the 30-plus point mark against a Hawaii defense that can be had on the road.
CFB Pick: Air Force Team Total OVER 29.5 (-120)
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