There’s a reason Alyssa Thomas has finished in the top five in WNBA MVP voting in each of the past four seasons: there’s simply no quit in her. Her fourth quarter and overtime heroics on Tuesday night helped erase a 20-point deficit as the Phoenix Mercury managed to tie the WNBA Semifinals with the Minnesota Lynx, one game apiece.
Now, the Mercury have home-court advantage over the top-seeded Lynx, with two games set to be played in Phoenix before a potential series-deciding Game 5 next Tuesday in Minnesota. Game 3 will begin tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET.
The Lynx are four-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 Moneyline), with the total set at 158.5 points. The Mercury are +136 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the pivotal game and offer a prediction.
Lynx at Mercury prediction, pick
At halftime of Game 2, everything was going smoothly for Minnesota. MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier had 17 points, two boards, and three steals, two other Lynx were in double figures, and her team led by 16 points despite shooting just four-for-16 (25.0%) from downtown. At that point, Minnesota had snagged five more rebounds and given away five fewer turnovers. But much like Game 1, when Phoenix had a seven-point edge at halftime before losing by 13, the tide turned. The Lynx started to become careless with the ball, giving away seven turnovers in the third quarter alone, and the Mercury started hitting more shots, with rookie Monique Akoa Makani going three-for-three from the field and Thomas chipping in four points and four assists. The tide truly turned late in the third, when Kathryn Westbeld scored eight points in four minutes.
Despite its poor performance, Minnesota nearly escaped. It led by three points with just three seconds left and forced Sami Whitcomb to airball a triple from the top of the key, and a defensive rebound would’ve secured the victory. Instead, the errant shot fell into Thomas’ arms, and after some great ball movement, Whitcomb hit a side-step from the left wing. From there, it was all Thomas, who iced the game in overtime from the charity stripe as the Lynx shot just two-for-seven. Phoenix won the rebounding and turnover battle in the second half and Thomas had nine assists, playing all 25 minutes after the halftime whistle.
The biggest X-factor in the game was the reserve play: Minnesota got just three points from its bench, while the Mercury scored 25. Part of that is by design: DeWanna Bonner and Whitcomb both average more points and minutes than Natasha Mack and Akoa Makani despite coming off the bench, and both are in the closing five. Still, Kayla McBride bit the wrong way on a Whitcomb pass fake that allowed Satou Sabally to get open for a three and had a costly turnover a few possessions later; she was in the game from 6:26 remaining in the second quarter until the end, so it’s possible fatigue was a factor. If the Lynx want to win Game 3, Cheryl Reeve could probably afford to use her bench more; her three bench players had a combined plus-minus of plus-three, and they had a plus-4.2 net rating during the regular season.
Interior play will dictate this game; so far these playoffs, Phoenix has allowed opponents to shoot 64.8% within the restricted area, while Minnesota’s 64.6% mark lags only slightly behind, and both teams have been pretty dominant everywhere else. In particular, that should benefit Thomas, whose 8.4 restricted-area tries per game so far these playoffs pace all participants, and her 66.7% accuracy ranks ninth among all players who have attempted at least three such shots per game. The Lynx don’t have many interior threats, and their game plan mostly operates around being the league’s best three-point shooting team, which could continue to be a problem against a Mercury team that has allowed opponents to shoot just 26.4% from deep these playoffs. In five games against Phoenix, Collier is just five-for-20 from deep.
As long as the Mercury can keep closing out on Collier as well as they have, they have a good shot. Home court advantage is also a huge factor among these teams; Minnesota’s net rating was 9.4 points per 100 possessions worse on the road, and Phoenix’s 10.6 points per 100 possessions better at home. I’ll take the Mercury to pull off the upset.
