“We won’t know anything about this team until September 27th.” — Penn State fans.
“We won’t know anything about this team until September 27th.” — Oregon fans.
Welp, good news for all football fans — Saturday is September 27th, and we have one of the best slates of the season, including two of the games of the year at night.
While the preseason notion of this game was that we won’t learn anything until these teams meet, the betting market is telling me that bettors are buying into what we’ve seen from Oregon. Or not buying into what we’ve seen from Penn State, but either way, I have my doubts. This number was bet from -3.5 to -6.5 in the preseason, as bettors had high hopes for the Nittany Lions. Now we’re here, and both teams are undefeated as expected, and the line has dipped back to 3/3.5.
That movement is due to the Ducks putting their foot on the gas to start the season, with 59 and 69 points in their first two games. However, since that point, Oregon’s 34-14 win at Northwestern and 41-7 victory against Oregon State have been nice, but the Ducks didn’t cover either game. Dante Moore also has not been tested yet as the Ducks’ starting quarterback, and his trip down the slopes is essentially a black diamond.
Meanwhile, Penn State is getting knocked for not opening it up enough against Nevada, FIU and Villanova, despite not really having a reason to. I’m trusting my preseason handicap on this one and backing PSU at home. I like Penn State as the better team, and its coming off a bye and playing at home for a “White Out” night game — arguably the biggest home game in about eight years.
Yes, it’s a bit nerve wracking to back James Franklin and Drew Allar in a big game. But Penn State has elite talent all over the field, and home field advantage should also play a real role. Penn State found success running the ball on Oregon in the Big Ten title game last season, despite losing. I think the Nittany Lions will have a chance to run on the Ducks again here, and if Oregon over-adjusts, look for Allar to have a chance to make some big plays.
I understand Oregon put up a ton of points the last time these teams met, but we’re going from Dillon Gabriel on a neutral to Dante Moore on the road. There’s a big difference there. Oregon had to play an in-state rival last week, and now has to go east into an absolute hornets nest. Let’s see what the Ducks are made of. I’m going to make Dante Moore and company prove it to me.
CFB Pick: Penn State -3.5 (-108) – juiced -3 even better
Check out my full CFB Week 5 betting card on DK Network right here.
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