The preseason line on this game was Georgia laying 4.5 points, and both teams were expected to be 3-0 entering this game. The Bulldogs, despite playing a close game on the road at Tennessee, have done their part to enter this massive SEC showdown with an undefeated record. However, Alabama comes in at 2-1 with a loss in its only road game of the season — back in Week 1 laying two touchdowns at Florida State.
So the spread on this game is down through a field goal and moving towards ‘Bama? I think the Crimson Tide are a good team, and ran into an FSU squad that was very underpriced by the market as an unknown in Week 1. ‘Bama very well could lose on Saturday at UGA and then run the table to make the College Football Playoff, still considered as a National Championship contender.
However, I have a tough time seeing the Tide winning this game on the road. Alabama’s win over Wisconsin has not aged well, with the Badgers falling the following week as a double-digit home favorite. This is going to be a prove it game for the Crimson Tide, who’s best chance will be to test Georgia’s secondary deep down the field. That said, FSU showed the blueprint to beating ‘Bama — get pressure on the quarterback. I think the ‘Dawgs pass rush can do just that.
I understand Georgia’s defense looked shaky on the backend in Knoxville, but this is a different ballgame in Athens. I believe in UGA to really tighten things up on defense with two full weeks to work on it, and we could see ‘Bama revert back to its struggles that we saw in Week 1 in a true road game. Of course, Kalen DeBoer will have a good scheme to go against Georgia after a bye week of his own, but I ultimately give the coaching edge to Kirby Smart.
This game should be personal for Smart and the Bulldogs, looking for revenge off a wild 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa last season. Alabama has dominated the matchup in recent memory, but a couple of things will change. This is just the second time the teams will meet since Nick Saban retired, and the first time Georgia will host a Saban-less Crimson Tide — this is surprisingly ‘Bama’s first trip between the hedges since 2015.
I trust in Gunner Stockton and the ‘Dawgs on offense, particularly after what they displayed to pullout that win at Tennessee. Georgia will actually be down a starting offensive lineman in Earnest Greene, but has the depth to fill the void. Smart actually removed Greene late from the game against Tennessee, and it sparked a long touchdown rive that helped UGA win the game. FSU moved the ball well against Alabama on the road, and I have no doubt Georgia can do the same. The game comes down to stops, and I have to see Alabama’s offense step up on the road to believe it.
This is about as strong of a home field advantage as you can find in college football. It’s been since October of 2019 since the Bulldogs lost a game on their home field, and I don’t see that changing on Saturday night.
CFB Pick: Georgia ML (-125)
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