Patience is a virtue in fantasy football, but only for so long. With Week 3 now in the books, we’re already roughly 20% of the way through the fantasy regular season. Trends are beginning to form as we see who players and teams really are, but one of the more concerning outlooks is that of Brian Thomas Jr., one of the breakout stars of 2024. Despite an improvement at head coach to bring a better offense to Jacksonville, the Jaguars star has massively underperformed thus far in 2025.
Last week, I wrote about whether the young wideout can bounce back. After another rough performance in Week 3, is Brian Thomas Jr. a buy-low target or an avoid in fantasy football?
Is Brian Thomas Jr. a buy-low candidate?
With a 6-foot-2 frame and a 4.33 40-yard dash, it’s easy to see the upside with Brian Thomas Jr. Last year, he posted one of the most impressive stat lines of any wide receiver, accumulating the fourth-most yards of any rookie at the position in NFL history. That production absolutely translated to fantasy football as mentioned below.
He saw 133 targets in 17 games, catching 87 balls for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. The LSU product averaged 16.7 FPPG to finish as the overall WR4 and per-game WR13, particularly catching fire down the stretch with 23.9 points or more in three of his final four contests.
A busy offseason in Duval County saw the Jaguars hire Liam Coen to take over as head coach, as well as trade significant draft capital to select two-way star Travis Hunter to play both wide receiver and cornerback. The addition of a proven play-caller as well as a costar to line up alongside Thomas Jr. created plenty of hype about the improved situation since after all, the outlook for the offense saw a significant bump. Between those factors and the usual second-year leap for a wideout, his ADP shot up into the first couple rounds of fantasy football drafts. Unfortunately the production through the first three weeks doesn’t match the expectations.
Thomas Jr. posted PPR point totals of 9.0, 8.9 and 7.5 across the opening three games of the new season despite seeing 25 targets and one rush attempt. With poor output of just 8.5 fantasy points per game despite one of the best opportunity shares of any wideout, there are plenty of reasons to worry at this stage of the season.
The quality of targets Thomas Jr. sees from Trevor Lawrence could be better since just 11 of the 25 were deemed catchable — but it’s shocking to see him with just six receptions considering how many balls have been thrown his way. That raises the possibility of the receiver’s wrist injury playing a factor, but it seems the Jaguars were discrete as they didn’t list Thomas Jr. on the injury report in Week 2 and he ended up cleared to play in Week 3. Even if the wrist isn’t playing a factor in the decline, the young talent also hasn’t shown much willingness to fight for the ball and additional yards over the middle of the field, raising questions about whether the issue is more mental than physical.
All three of these reasons feel feasible, but we’ve seen just how talented Thomas Jr. is. Should fantasy managers still look to buy low on him in hopes of a resurgence back to his rookie-year form?
The verdict
It’s difficult to deny the situation seemingly grows more dire by the week. His first game felt like a one-off, and even Week 2 seemed like more of an exception than the norm. However, three straight contests of struggles are enough to put the seasons of fantasy managers who drafted Thomas Jr. into question. In my opinion, that’s something that smart players can capitalize on — here’s how I put it last week.
While BTJ drastically underperformed relative to those opportunities, there’s reason to feel hopeful for a return to form. This isn’t a case of a replacement-level player failing to capitalize on high volume. This situation is entirely different in that we’ve seen Thomas Jr. excel as a difference-maker in fantasy football lineups, so banking on the talent to overcome a slow start is the only correct decision in this case.
To an extent, fantasy football is a game of risk management. Playing things safe rarely wins you a week, but taking the bolder route can often be the difference between making the playoffs and falling short down the stretch. This is a case in which managers with Thomas Jr. are almost certainly in full-on panic mode over his play, which means they’re likely looking for a more reliable contributor for their lineups. Buy-low opportunities for elite talent don’t exactly spring up often, and as the cliche goes, fortune favors the bold.
If you have decent wide receiver depth, offering a trade for Thomas Jr. presents a fantastic chance to take a swing on a player we’ve seen make an elite impact before. Yes, things appear rough at the moment, but it’s a long season and it’s more likely the young wideout bounces back at some point than continues to underperform the combination of his own ability and opportunity share. As of last week, he ranked ninth in expected fantasy points and he’s seen 23.1% of his team’s targets so far, including three red-zone looks. Coen and the Jaguars want him to be involved in this offense, which should improve as players get more comfortable in a new system.
The risk is high, but the upside Thomas Jr. provides is even higher. As the old adage goes, fortune favors the bold… if you’re looking to acquire a potential game-breaker in fantasy football on the low, now’s your chance.
