It seems like every year as of late, rookie wideouts emerge as bonafide fantasy football stars. Last season, Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars put plenty of great plays on tape during his exciting breakout campaign, and with head coach Liam Coen now at the helm of the franchise, expectations for the young star remain high as ever. However, Thomas Jr. hasn’t lived up to those expectations through the first two weeks of 2025, sparking growing concern about a lack of effort or a poor fit in the new offense.
With questions now arising entering Week 3, can Brian Thomas Jr. bounce back in fantasy football this week, or was his success last season just a flash in the pan?
Can Brian Thomas Jr. bounce back?
In a wide receiver class loaded with other talent like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr. managed to elevate his game and post one of the most impressive debut seasons of the bunch last year. He saw 133 targets in 17 games, catching 87 balls for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. The LSU product averaged 16.7 FPPG to finish as the overall WR4 and per-game WR13, particularly catching fire down the stretch with 23.9 points or more in three of his final four contests. With a 6-foot-2 frame and eye-popping athleticism, Thomas Jr. appeared poised to grow his game for an even bigger year two.
Expectations only grew when the Jaguars hired Liam Coen to take over as the franchise’s head coach. After calling one of the NFL’s top offenses in 2024 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the upside of a more reliable and creative passing game only created more hype for Thomas Jr. in his first season under the new staff. However, the results through the first two weeks feel underwhelming to say the least.
The second-year wide receiver posted just 9.0 and 8.9 fantasy points in PPR formats during his first two games to start 2025. He caught just one of his seven targets in Week 1 for 11 yards, salvaging his fantasy day with a nine-yard rush for a touchdown. In Week 2, Thomas Jr. saw 12 targets but caught only four for 49 yards. The statistical output creates some uneasiness for fantasy managers who drafted him in the late first or early second round, but some critics also point out an alleged lack of effort by the wideout as he failed to dive on a fumble and shied away from contact on numerous occasions.
The situation became even more interesting when Coen mentioned Thomas Jr. has been dealing with a wrist injury which was previously undisclosed without a designation on the injury report. The 22-year-old has started the campaign in nightmare fashion, but will the woes continue or will he bounce back to his former self?
The verdict
This situation has quickly become one of the strangest in the NFL. Thomas Jr. showed an abundance of upside as a rookie with his physical tools last year, and the environment in Jacksonville does seem improved in comparison to the coaching staff and surrounding talent of the past. What’s caused this slow start for the young standout?
Some people are keen to blame the quarterback play. While Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played his best football yet, the quarterback still threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2 despite tossing a pair of interceptions as well. With 42 pass attempts this past week and 31 in Week 1 (though the catchable target rate for BTJ was just 43%), the passing volume seems like enough to support another great campaign for Thomas Jr. After all, he’s seen reliable volume himself with a 26% target share on Lawrence’s 73 total pass attempts. As Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan put it, the wideout actually ranks ninth-best in expected fantasy points.
It’s been a rough start to the year for Thomas Jr. and fantasy managers who roster him, but it’s not yet time to panic. This feels like an aberration given the volume the receiver’s garnered thus far. While BTJ drastically underperformed relative to those opportunities, there’s reason to feel hopeful for a return to form. This isn’t a case of a replacement-level player failing to capitalize on high volume. This situation is entirely different in that we’ve seen Thomas Jr. excel as a difference-maker in fantasy football lineups, so banking on the talent to overcome a slow start is the only correct decision in this case.
The wrist injury may have caused the young receiver to drop a pass or two, but even if that’s bothering him, Thomas Jr. remains one of the best players at his position in the entire NFL. He’s seeing the targets necessary to succeed in fantasy football, and that elite production should return at some point soon. Statistically, a slump like this should smooth itself out with time — feel free to take the Jaguars’ stud out of lineups for the moment if you desire, but don’t complain when he pops off with a big performance. It’s only a matter of time.
