The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies this weekend as they try to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race. They start the night three games behind the Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot after losing to the Phillies last night in the series opener. The second game of the series will get underway at 8:10 p.m. ET this Saturday, and should be one of the most exciting and important of the weekend.
The Diamondbacks are 77-77 after 154 games with eight left in the season, while the Phillies are 92-62. They’re two games behind the Brewers in the race for the best record in the National League, which could be very important for home-field advantage during the NLCS if both teams get there. The Phillies have won three of their last four games and nine of their last 11, while the D-backs have won four of their last six, but lost the last two games.
The Diamondbacks are narrow home favorites at -118 on the Moneyline, with the run total for the game set at nine. Let’s preview this Saturday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies at Diamondbacks prediction, preview
This matchup on Saturday features a pair of veteran starters who have had disappointing seasons, but are looking to finish with a couple of strong outings.
After a disastrous start to the campaign, Zac Gallen has been better lately for the D-backs. He could be making his last home start in an Arizona uniform, since his next turn in the rotation would be next Friday in San Diego, and he will be a free agent following the season.
He is just 12-14 in his 31 starts this season with a 4.73 ERA and 4.51 FIP. In his first 17 starts, Gallen had a 5.75 ERA and 5.24 FIP, but he has been better since the start of August, going 5-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 3.82 FIP. He has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his nine starts during that span, including one or zero runs in four of his last five.
Gallen will be opposed by Aaron Nola, who has also had a down year, partly due to multiple injuries. Normally a reliable workhorse, Nola has only been able to make 15 starts this year and has a 6.44 ERA and 4.91 FIP.
He has flashed his previous form in some outings, like when he went six shutout innings against the Mets earlier this month or shut out the D-backs for six innings when these two teams met back in May. However, he gave up six runs in six innings in his most recent start and has given up 25 runs in 31 1/3 innings in his six starts since returning from the injured list.
One hitter in the D-backs lineup that has had success against Nola in the past is Ketel Marte, who I highlighted in my top home run props of the day. Jake McCarthy has also hit him well in the past going 5-for-11 with a double, triple, and two homers in their past meetings.
On the Phillies’ side, Bryce Harper is 10-for-20 with a double and a pair of homers against Gallen in the past. Harper is also heating up coming down the stretch and has hit .297 with eight homers and a .393 wOBA over his last 31 games. During that span, he has 76 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBI) and 63 total bases for an average of 2.5 HRR and 2.0 total bases over that stretch. Harper is +114 to have 2+ total bases, -124 to have over 1.5 HRR, and +464 to hit a home run. I like all of those props depending on how aggressive you’re feeling this Saturday night.
On the Arizona side, my favorite hitter to back aside from Marte is Geraldo Perdomo. The 25-year-old breakout switch-hitter is 13-for-31 (.419) during his current nine-game hitting streak with 24 total bases and 26 HRR. I love the over 1.5 on his HRR props at -133 and even like climbing the ladder with him to 3+ HRR at +161 and 4+ HRR at +332 if you’re feeling really spicy.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-114)
Arizona needs to win this game much more than the Phillies do, and Gallen has been much better than Nola lately. The Phillies could have a longer leash with Nola since they’ll be evaluating how much he can give them in the postseason.
Strong Lean: Over 2.5 home runs total (+115)
Nola and Gallen have each been home-run prone, and both lineups have plenty of power. Chase Field is a homer-friendly environment, and I think the ball will be flying on Saturday. This is always a fun prop to target if you’re watching the game, since no matter who is at the plate, you just get to cheer for dingers!
