All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are ready to roll this Saturday, with the Twins and Guardians playing a doubleheader, putting 16 games on the schedule. With several playoff races still up for grabs with eight days before the end of the regular season, the regular season still has plenty of drama remaining. This weekend also features the final regular-season series at Coors Field this year and some other juicy matchups as well. After looking at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for this Saturday come from Ian Happ, Ketel Marte, and Blaine Crim.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Saturday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ian Happ to record 1+ home runs (+376)
Happ and the Cubs are in Cincinnati against Zack Littell and the Reds at Great American Ball Park for the third outing of their four-game set in one of the early games this Saturday. The Reds are still in the playoff chase, but the Cubs have already secured a Wild Card spot.
Happ will have a good matchup against Littell, who has allowed 34 home runs in his 30 starts, including six in his last two home starts at Great American Ball Park. In all of the majors, only Jake Irvin (35) has given up more long balls this season. Despite all those home runs allowed, Littell has actually done an impressive job of limiting damage, posting a 3.86 ERA and 4.87 FIP. He’s 1-0 in eight starts since joining the Reds with a 4.74 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 1.65 HR/9.
Righties like Happ have 20 of the 34 homers off Littell this season with a .326 wOBA. Happ has hit 23 homers on the year, and 18 of his 23 homers have come against righties like Littell. The switch-hitter has a .348 wOBA against righties on the year and has hit seven homers in his last 20 games.
Happ brings solid value with his home run props near +400 and has a good shot at taking Littell yard this Saturday evening based on the multiple splits in his favor and his strong recent form.
Ketel Marte to record 1+ home runs (+403)
Marte and the Dbacks took a tough loss on Friday night as they continue to try to hang in the Wild Card chase. Marte homered in the loss, giving him 26 homers on the year. The 31-year-old switch-hitter is in a good spot on Saturday night as well against Aaron Nola.
Marte has 25+ homers in three straight seasons and has three homers in September with a 44.4% hard-hit rate. He has a 46.5% hard-hit rate on the year with a 16% barrel rate on the season, and he has 18 of his home runs against righties as a left-handed hitter, like this blast last night off Taijuan Walker.
Marte has 18 of his 26 homers against righties with a .289 average and .385 wOBA on that side of the split.
He’ll face righty Aaron Nola on Saturday, who has allowed 17 homers in 15 games with a 6.44 ERA and 4.91 FIP. Lefties have hit 14 of the 17 homers off Nola and have a .382 wOBA. They have been even more effective against him in his road starts, where they have a .404 wOBA and seven homers on the year.
Marte is 5-for-15 in his career against Nola with two homers, a double, and a triple. His home run props are a solid value play on Saturday night in Arizona, in another big game for Arizona’s playoff hopes.
Blaine Crim to record 1+ home runs (+690)
The highest run total on the board is from Coors Field tonight, as usual. The altitude always improves home run chances, and both the Rockies and Angels have some exciting young hitters looking to prove that they’re ready to contribute next year.
Crim is a longshot play at almost 7:1, but has the potential to go yard since he has three homers in his last seven games since joining the Rockies in the majors. I included Crim in my top MLB DFS plays of the day as well, along with some other nice young options with upside in this Angels-Rockies matchup.
Crim is a 28-year-old righty who spent the last several seasons in the minors for the Rangers. He hit 21 homers in Triple-A for the Rangers and Rockies this year after 20 homers in 2024 and 22 in 2023.
Crim has seven hits in his seven games with the Rockies, and he has a favorable matchup against Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks is 7-10 with a 5.01 ERA and 4.81 FIP in his first year with the Angels. He has given up 26 homers in his 29 starts this season, and righties have hit 15 homers with a .355 wOBA against Hendricks on the year. In his last start, he gave up nine runs on 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings against the Mariners.
While he’s not a proven option, Crim is a great value with good potential on Saturday night at Coors.
